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d3swimming.com • View topic - Selection Row for Invites

Selection Row for Invites

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Selection Row for Invites

Postby openwater » Sun Feb 22, 2009 4:42 pm

As of noon on 2/22 81 women have A-cuts and there are 148 women in the top 20 rows of all the individual events. If the entry cap is not raised from its traditional 146 then all these women would be invited because included here are 4 women with 4 entries in the first 20 rows and 3 with 5 entries. So despite the fact that there are 17 A-cuts for the Breaststroke, it looks like the individual invites may actually get to row 21.

Yes I know that there are meets going that have finals tonight. Yes I know that the D3 swimming database may not be up to date (it is in far better shape today than the Collegeswimming one). And yes I know that there are last-chance-meets going this weekend (and next). But it looks despite this uncertainty that individual invites will reach to a row not too different than in a pre-LZR/Boo70 year.

Have to do some real work now, will try to report on the relay situation later.
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Re: Selection Row for Invites

Postby openwater » Mon Feb 23, 2009 10:44 am

Monday Morning Update:

88 women with a total of 151 A-cuts.
17 A-cuts for the 2 Back and the 1 Breast.
42 additional swimmers when filling all events to 17 rows = 130 entries.
20 more swimmers through Row 20.
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Re: Selection Row for Invites

Postby N Dynamite » Mon Feb 23, 2009 10:57 am

Yeah, ridiculous. My numbers are a little different from yours, but I'm probably missing a TT or two. Although the line will be a little different as the fastest make choices on which three events to swim, I have line 20 for the 50 free at 23.78, only .07 off the A-Cut.
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Re: Selection Row for Invites

Postby Sir Carl » Mon Feb 23, 2009 2:32 pm

Are there any more conference/notable last chance meets for the women?

I'm curious to see how the relays end up. Last year there were only 9 lines selected, which was obviously somewhat of an anomaly, but will we see a similar situation this year or will there be more selected since even top teams are stacking their relays with individual qualifiers to make sure they make it?
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Re: Selection Row for Invites

Postby mwgdc » Mon Feb 23, 2009 7:08 pm

I'm new to this selection process. Could someone take a few minutes and explain the process. I would greatly appreciate that.
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Re: Selection Row for Invites

Postby openwater » Mon Feb 23, 2009 8:28 pm

Once a competitive swimmer, you can become anything.
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Re: Selection Row for Invites

Postby openwater » Tue Feb 24, 2009 1:11 am

Relay Report:
A-cut relays add 26 swimmers
B-cut relays through row 9 add 32 swimmers
This leaves only 6 slots
Row 10 relays include 7 relay only swimmers so one of the row 10 relays stays home

This is a careful estimate with a margin of error of several swimmers - I think it is a safe bet that no one from row 12 will be taken but the women will get beyond row 9.
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Re: Selection Row for Invites

Postby openwater » Tue Feb 24, 2009 8:02 am

Oh and Kenyon....
Through row 19 they have 23 swimmers with a total of 46 selectable A- and B-cuts. Five of these individuals can not be entered in the meet. Since Jim Steen is waiting for D3swimming to weigh in on this 'problem', I suggest that he leave home Amador, Hahn-Lawson, Chevalier, Leech, and Moore. Amador has been an important part of recent Kenyon teams but she has only an 18th seed in the 4IM on this year's resume.
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Re: Selection Row for Invites

Postby N Dynamite » Tue Feb 24, 2009 9:12 am

I hate to say this, but I think you missed a conference. Through line 19 I have 19 Kenyon women. I had line 19 filled with one spot left for line 20. I didn't bother to figure out who was closest to the record (or for that matter, who on line 20 was already in.) I agree on Amador, though - she was the last one I put in (line 19 in the 400 IM). I didn't finish looking at the relays so I'm going to take your word for it.
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Re: Selection Row for Invites

Postby babwik » Tue Feb 24, 2009 10:53 am

I did a little math and ranked the 19th time listed in each individual event on this website on percentage to championship record. Here is what I have:

1. 500: 5:00.72, 4:52.34, .97213
2. 100 fly: 57.29, 55.08, .96142
3. 1650: 17:22.09, 16:40.16, .95976
4. 50 : 23.74, 22.78, .95956
5. 400im: 4:32.17, 4:20.31, .95642
6. 100free: 51.94, 49.46, .95225
7. 200free: 1:52.93, 147.19, .94917
8. 200fly: 2:07.21, 2:00.15, .94450
9. 200im: 2:07.63, 2:00.27, .94233
10. 100back: 57.68, 53.85, .93359
11. 200br: 2:22.64, 2:12.83, .93122
12. 200back: 2:04.97, 1:56.33, .93086
13. 100br: 1:05.15, 1:00.54, .92924

A couple observations if my math is correct. ( always a big if)

I find it interesting that the 2 events with the most A cuts are last on the list. This could mean soft A cuts (based on third place time for the last few years I believe) or more likely it just means Sasser and Payne's records are very badass.

A tough year for free, as all the free events rank 7th and above.

I also did the math for the new records set during the season to see if it would impact anything (both flys, 500). The 100 and 200 fly would drop a slot or two, and the 500 would still be first.
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Re: Selection Row for Invites

Postby N Dynamite » Tue Feb 24, 2009 11:07 am

Wouldn't it be a great year for free since all of those were closer to the record? The closer you are the better chance you have of being picked. As for line 19, I took out fourth (and fifth) events for people based on ranking and likelihood of swimming the event (I tried to stay away from back to back). Of course, now that I'm thinking about it, when I did that I was using the three day format, so I probably didn't scratch people from appropriate events. Still, in some events, line 19 was actually the 21st or 22nd person on the list
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Re: Selection Row for Invites

Postby babwik » Tue Feb 24, 2009 12:14 pm

You're right. By tough I meant crowded, as in nationally the freestyle events seem extremely deep. So it is a great year for the freestyle events, but not a great year to be a girl that goes 5:02 in the 500.
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Re: Selection Row for Invites

Postby swimjunkie » Tue Feb 24, 2009 12:32 pm

Interesting analysis - thanks! If these results are not some sort of fast-year fluke (which I highly doubt), the new suits seem to have made it much more crowded at the top. This is what we saw at UAAs as well; the fastest (who were suited) didn't get that much faster, but the next level (consol swimmers) got a lot faster. And in the 200 back - across conferences - there were a lot of 6-8 second drops. And I don't think it's because there was a surge in better coaching/better swimmers....
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Re: Selection Row for Invites

Postby swimjunkie » Tue Feb 24, 2009 12:41 pm

The 2009 selection times are going to be slashed by the suits. Here are the current 19th-line times vs. the 2008 selection times (realizing, of course, that the 2008 selection times may represent someone beyond the 19th line last year). I can only hope the NCAA realizes what it's done, grows a spine, admits its mistakes, and bans the suits.

1. 500: 5:00.72 vs. 5:06.52
2. 100 fly: 57.29 vs. 58.28
3. 1650: 17:22.09 vs. 17:37.28
4. 50: 23.74 vs. 24.14
5. 400im: 4:32.17 vs. 4:35.41
6. 100free: 51.94 vs. 52.64
7. 200free: 1:52.93 vs. 1:54.77
8. 200fly: 2:07.21 vs. 2:07.39
9. 200im: 2:07.63 vs. 2:09.72
10. 100back: 57.68 vs. 58.89
11. 200br: 2:22.64 vs. 2:25.16
12. 200back: 2:04.97 vs. 2:07.39
13. 100br: 1:05.15 vs. 1:07.05
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Re: Selection Row for Invites

Postby TheDon » Tue Feb 24, 2009 1:26 pm

Unless there was a typo, the 200 fly seems to singularly be an event that was not really helped by the suits , at least as indicated by this dataset. Odd, I thought that event would have had experienced one of the biggest effects. Comments?
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