Nats, Who Ya Got?

What do you predict for nationals? Who is going to shine, who is not?

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wiswimdad
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Re: Nats, Who Ya Got?

Post by wiswimdad » Tue Feb 24, 2015 3:21 pm

CurtisReference wrote:Swimmers in the top twenty is not the starting point for figuring out who is in anymore. Since A cuts basically don't happen anymore, the place to start is Relays, which means that we know that Albion will have 4 people at the meet because of their 400 free relay, even though they don't have any swimmers in the top 20. MIT will have at least 12, TCNJ will have at least 10, and many of the solo swimmers on the list won't end up at the meet. The meet is biased towards team success rather than individual success, which on balance I think is a good thing.
Last year's invited cut lines were 19-20 primarily (if I am correct) BECAUSE of the nearly impossible A cuts. You are correct most teams will have more swimmers than what I listed. This is a minimum. Relay swimmers with Bs and additional invited swimmers will add to the meet and may effect the cut line, but 20 is a good starting point for the estimate. I posted this because there was a question about maxing out the 18 swimmer limit. Thought it was interesting.

Of course, correct me if I am wrong.

watercows
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Re: Nats, Who Ya Got?

Post by watercows » Tue Feb 24, 2015 3:23 pm

CurtisReference wrote:The meet is biased towards team success rather than individual success, which on balance I think is a good thing.
For my money, while necessarily imperfect, so long as the individual event line falls to at least 16 in each individual event (mirroring the relay line), then I'm content to let the chips fall. The fastest seeded 16 swimmers in each event deserve to get to TX and have a chance to come back for finals. I'm fine with others (with "B" cuts) getting individual swims due to making a top-16 relay.

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facenorth
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Re: Nats, Who Ya Got?

Post by facenorth » Tue Feb 24, 2015 3:39 pm

Has anyone actually ran the matrix yet? It doesn't impact anyone on my team this year but I'm curious and impatient: ) to know what line we'll get to with individual selections this year.

mdswimparent
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Re: Nats, Who Ya Got?

Post by mdswimparent » Tue Feb 24, 2015 3:42 pm

the invite list will be published at 10:00 am tomorrow.

thorntonb
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Re: Nats, Who Ya Got?

Post by thorntonb » Tue Feb 24, 2015 4:01 pm

facenorth wrote:Has anyone actually ran the matrix yet? It doesn't impact anyone on my team this year but I'm curious and impatient: ) to know what line we'll get to with individual selections this year.
Don't hold me to this as my process is far from perfect, but my estimate is line 17 on the Women's side with one in line 18 after meet scratches from Emory/Kenyon. Emory will need to drop 2 swimmers, and Kenyon 1 assuming their diver qualifies again.

CurtisReference
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Re: Nats, Who Ya Got?

Post by CurtisReference » Tue Feb 24, 2015 4:03 pm

Looking at Shiller's XL from last year (Men's side), there were 173 relay qualifiers last year. By my count, I see 181 relay qualifiers this year. If you take 8 individual swimmers out of last years meet, that would push the line up into the 17th rank.

mdswimparent
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Re: Nats, Who Ya Got?

Post by mdswimparent » Tue Feb 24, 2015 5:56 pm

Don't hold me to this as my process is far from perfect, but my estimate is line 17 on the Women's side with one in line 18 after meet scratches from Emory/Kenyon. Emory will need to drop 2 swimmers, and Kenyon 1 assuming their diver qualifies again.
How does that square with the line being at 20 last year?

Elm
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Re: Nats, Who Ya Got?

Post by Elm » Tue Feb 24, 2015 6:38 pm

Any reason why they invite more women (267) swimmers than men (260)?

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swimming2008
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Re: Nats, Who Ya Got?

Post by swimming2008 » Tue Feb 24, 2015 6:48 pm

It's proportional to the amount of overall participants in the sport... There are more women that participate in swimming - so the women get a few extra spots at the meet.

Elm
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Re: Nats, Who Ya Got?

Post by Elm » Tue Feb 24, 2015 6:50 pm

Thanks.

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watercows
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Re: Nats, Who Ya Got?

Post by watercows » Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:16 pm

Elm wrote:Any reason why they invite more women (267) swimmers than men (260)?
Title IX.

openwater
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Re: Nats, Who Ya Got?

Post by openwater » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:33 pm

mdswimparent wrote:
Don't hold me to this as my process is far from perfect, but my estimate is line 17 on the Women's side with one in line 18 after meet scratches from Emory/Kenyon. Emory will need to drop 2 swimmers, and Kenyon 1 assuming their diver qualifies again.
How does that square with the line being at 20 last year?
Because by the time you get to lines 19, 20 and such, the swimmers turn out to be mainly swimmers already in in other events or relays, the average number of new swimmers per line is far fewer than 11.
Once a competitive swimmer, you can become anything.

watercows
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Re: Nats, Who Ya Got?

Post by watercows » Wed Feb 25, 2015 11:02 am

mdswimparent wrote:the invite list will be published at 10:00 am tomorrow.
Was that 10:00 am EST? If so, unless I'm missing something it's already late.

wiswimdad
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Re: Nats, Who Ya Got?

Post by wiswimdad » Wed Feb 25, 2015 11:10 am

watercows wrote:
mdswimparent wrote:the invite list will be published at 10:00 am tomorrow.
Was that 10:00 am EST? If so, unless I'm missing something it's already late.
It was EST. They must not have tapered...didn't hit their seed time.

Truthinswmng
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Re: Nats, Who Ya Got?

Post by Truthinswmng » Wed Feb 25, 2015 11:15 am

wiswimdad wrote:
watercows wrote:
mdswimparent wrote:the invite list will be published at 10:00 am tomorrow.
Was that 10:00 am EST? If so, unless I'm missing something it's already late.
It was EST. They must not have tapered...didn't hit their seed time.
From the Pre-Championship Manual: "Unofficial psych sheet, with swimmers only, posted by 8 p.m. ET."

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