2013 Cut Line

What do you predict for nationals? Who is going to shine, who is not?

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pops
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Re: 2013 Cut Line

Post by pops » Mon Feb 25, 2013 11:44 am

Will you get someone who has an A cut in the 100 fly and another event not swim the 100 fly, and enter 2 other events because the competition and points will be easier?

Without looking at the list - an A cut in the 100 and 200 fly, but enter the 2fly, 4Im and 500, and scoring in those 2 rather than not scoring in the 1fly?

h20geek
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Re: 2013 Cut Line

Post by h20geek » Mon Feb 25, 2013 11:50 am

If ~20 B cut invitees is accurate, we get through some of Line 13

babwik
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Re: 2013 Cut Line

Post by babwik » Mon Feb 25, 2013 11:55 am

h20geek wrote:If ~20 B cut invitees is accurate, we get through some of Line 13

Thanks for doing the math.

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Re: 2013 Cut Line

Post by DonCheadle » Mon Feb 25, 2013 11:57 am

pops wrote:Will you get someone who has an A cut in the 100 fly and another event not swim the 100 fly, and enter 2 other events because the competition and points will be easier?

Without looking at the list - an A cut in the 100 and 200 fly, but enter the 2fly, 4Im and 500, and scoring in those 2 rather than not scoring in the 1fly?
I think that will occur to every coach. Of course it depends on the individual but yes, I think the "3rd" event options will not all default to the 50 like they have in the past.

ISB is an interesting example on this. He is probably "better" at the 50 than the 1650 if you use the USSWIM points calculator. But a 16:00 may snag you 10th place while I can see a 20.40 not scoring at all.

If there are events that do not have 16 people entered in them....man...what a disaster.
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Re: 2013 Cut Line

Post by DonCheadle » Mon Feb 25, 2013 11:59 am

pops wrote:Will you get someone who has an A cut in the 100 fly and another event not swim the 100 fly, and enter 2 other events because the competition and points will be easier?

Without looking at the list - an A cut in the 100 and 200 fly, but enter the 2fly, 4Im and 500, and scoring in those 2 rather than not scoring in the 1fly?
I just texted with a coach: FYI entries are kind of "locked" already. Unless you had the foresite to see this coming. Hmmm, I smell an unfair advantage protest! The schools with conference meets this weekend are the only ones that get to benefit from the knowledge that there are likley events with only 15 or so entries.
Thank you Mario! But our princess is in another castle!

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N Dynamite
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Re: 2013 Cut Line

Post by N Dynamite » Mon Feb 25, 2013 12:06 pm

I don't understand what you mean by locked. Don't they have until later today to get their entries in?
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facenorth
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Re: 2013 Cut Line

Post by facenorth » Mon Feb 25, 2013 12:32 pm

Napoleon, you're right, so it Cheadle. Entries aren't due until later today but coaches have the opportunity to get started on their entries before today. If you were one of the coaches that wanted to chip away at things or knew you wanted certain people in certain events (or you were just paranoid and wanted to make sure you didn't miss it), you could do that. How I understand the process is that every time you update your entries you're actually submitting them and when you log back in the next time to do them, you cannot change events. So they are locked if you started working ahead.

Has anyone looked at how many relay only swimmers have 'B' cuts and in which events? That would be interesting to know.

swimlong
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Re: 2013 Cut Line

Post by swimlong » Mon Feb 25, 2013 12:40 pm

watercows wrote:
openwater wrote:
nescac wrote:On the men's side, the individual A cuts alone bring in 81 swimmers with cut lines of:

line 13 50 free
line 12 100 free
line 8 200 free
line 3 500 free
line 5 1650
line 9 100 back
line 9 200 back
line 6 100 breast
line 8 200 breast
line 25 100 fly
line 19 200 fly
line 8 200 IM
line 4 400 IM

I didn't look at relays but I wonder if they even get to 16 relays for men? I don't think the 16 line for relays is mandatory if they hit the cap first. (There are only a few A relays for each event so that should have no impact on the rules.)
16 relays plus the A-cuts leaves about 20 B-invites by my count.
Any schools (e.g., Kenyon, Denison, etc.) look like they'll confront roster cap issues for NCAAs?
If you fill line 13, a quick look at the times on USA Swimming, including relays, shows Kenyon with 13 and Denison with 14 entries, plus divers.

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Re: 2013 Cut Line

Post by polarbear » Mon Feb 25, 2013 12:59 pm

pops wrote:Will you get someone who has an A cut in the 100 fly and another event not swim the 100 fly, and enter 2 other events because the competition and points will be easier?

Without looking at the list - an A cut in the 100 and 200 fly, but enter the 2fly, 4Im and 500, and scoring in those 2 rather than not scoring in the 1fly?
Deveney from MIT -- could swim anything on day 2 of the 3 day program -- 3:58 IM, 1:39 free, 49 back, 56 breast. His other events are 1:49 IM and 1:48 back

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Re: 2013 Cut Line

Post by Truthinswmng » Mon Feb 25, 2013 1:57 pm

nescac wrote:I've done the algorithm for the women. I had to make some assumptions about swimmers with multiple events. I also believe Emory is within its 20 squad limit given the cut line so I didn't drop any Emory swimmer. Surprisingly, I only got to line 14 for one swimmer. Otherwise, the cut line was at 13. That's never happened before for the women. Maybe someone else can correct me. For swimmers who are NOT in relays, I marked their placement in their best individual event (after I eliminated extra swimmers who had more than 3 swims). This list is 248 swimmers. Women's cut is 242. So six swimmers have to go. That takes care of all line 15 swimmers and all but one line 14 swimmer. I'd like to be wrong about the cut line!!
Allocco 10th 1650
Anderson
Anding
Armitage
Aronoff 13th 200 breast
Auzenburgs
Baker, Colleen
Baker, Tori
Beach, Megan 9th 200 breast
Beauchamp 15th 400 IM
Bednarek, Marissa
Belak
Bell, Kiersten 7th 1650
Bennett
Berkman
Bernhardt
Bialecka
Bogdanovski
Boritzke
Bridges
Burgess
Carnley
Cassano
Chang 5th 200 breast
Chudy 8th 1650
Clalkowski
Cline
Colasurdo
Coley
Collins 12th 100 breast
Conklin
Connolly
Consoer
Cooper 6th 100 fly
Counsell
Counts
Culmo 11th 50 free
Cunningham
Cusumano
Dalziel, Elizabeth 9th 200 back
Diehl
Dillione 4th 200 fly
DiNardo 6th 200 fly
Dobben
Douglas, Marissa
Drake
Edsail
Epstein
Escobar 7th 100 breast
Fago
Feldman
Finney
Fittipaldi 7th 500 free
Flinn, Rachel
Foley
Fox 5th 200 IM
Gardner
Garner
Gaylord
Gebhard
Geyer
Grant 14th 1650
Griffin
Ha, Kathryn
Hackler
Hagy
Haller
Hallock
Hance
Haron
Harris, Laura 11th 100 fly
Heinbach 14th 400 IM
Heise
Herich
Hess
Hillas
Hirschfield
Hogan
Holden
Howell
Hu, Clara 11th 400 IM
Hu, Elina
Hund
Hunt, Kate 200 fly
Hunt, Sarah
Hyde
Johns 3rd 500 free
Johnson, Dayna
Jones, Carly 12th 200 IM
Kaestner
Kee
Kerico
Killian
Kincade
Kinzer
Kitayama
Kohlbeck
Kokensparger
Kolitsch
Kukeika
Ladd
Larson
Lauridsen
Lawson
Lee, Maddie
Lessard 8th 200 fly
Levin, Hayley 12th 400 IM
Levine, Alyssa
Lindblom 8th 500 free
Liu
Loftus, Kelly
Lovrensky 10th 100 back
Lugg
Lukes 5th 100 free
Lushinsky 6th 400 IM
Maclean
Majewski
Marshall
Matthys
Max, Abigail
Max, Elyssa
McAfee
McDermott 13th 1650
McGrath
McHugh 3rd 200 fly
McKenzie 10th 200 breast
McLaughlin 13th 400 IM
Michalak 7th 200 IM
Miller, Nicole
Miller, Shannon
Monroe
Montesanti
Moores
Nennig
Newsum-Schoenberg 4th 1650
Nitz
Northuis
Nuess
Nuzzo
O'Leary, Katherine
O'Neill, Elise
O'Neill, Erica
Oberholzer
Offerdahl
Olsen
Olson
Ormond
Palumbo
Parker, Natalie 11th 200 IM
Pennington
Pham 14th 200 IM
Phan 15th 200 IM
Phillips, Callie
Pielock
Pierce
Poole
Powell
Pronga
Punyko
Rafferty-Millett
Reynolds
Riesmeyer
Rinsma
Risucci 2nd 200 breast
Rogers, Christy
Rogers, Emma
Roggensack
Rooker
Rookus
Rosenbaum 1st 100 back
Rosenkranz
Rossick
Rossillo
Rotner
Rutledge
Ryan, Emmie
Ryan, Jennny
Saiz
Scalise
Schafer
Schnaith
Schwartzlow
Shaak 10th 500 free
Shangle 9th 100 breast
Shaw
Siegel, Allison
Siegel, Katie
Slagel 7th 100 back
Slaughter 2nd 50 free
Soper
Spaay
Splinter
Sprung-Keyser
Stadermann 13th 200 fly
Stewart
Stoddart
Storm
Strom
Sultan
Suzuka
Swanson
Swett
Taege
Tartavull
Ternes
Ternullo
Thompson, Ellie 14th 200 back
Thompson, Kendall
Thompson, Sarah
Tibbetts
Tinklenberg
Townsend
Trace
Treesh
Umbarger 13th 50 free
Vairo
Van Fossen
Van Leuven
Vincett
Visconti
Wagner
Walter
Watson, Janet 12th 1650
Weber, Emily
Weiss
Wennlund
Westfall
Westrate
Wilcoxen
Williamson
Willingham,Molly 9th 200 free
Wilson
Wixson
Wolber
Woodend 13th 50 free
Woodward 7th 400 IM
Wormwood 11th 100 breast
Yang
Yarosh
Yearwood
Yeh
York 9th 400 IM
Yu, Katherine
Yu, Sarah 14th 100 back
Zeberlein
Zemanovic
Zerbini
Zook 7th 200 fly
What is it about this year that is so dramatically moving the line on the women's side? No rule changes. Is it simply that the depth of competition below the very top has diminished, so there are many, many more relay only's with weak or no B cuts? Formula has been the same for last two years and line has been 18 since the 16 relay rule was implemented.

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Re: 2013 Cut Line

Post by ScotsFan » Mon Feb 25, 2013 2:07 pm

DonCheadle wrote: If there are events that do not have 16 people entered in them....man...what a disaster.
Didn't that happen with the relays at D1 national meet last year? Didn't that finally start to promote at lease SOME reforms at the D1 level in the quirky, ridiculous cap system? Is it really going to have to take something like that to force change?

gcc62
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Re: 2013 Cut Line

Post by gcc62 » Mon Feb 25, 2013 2:21 pm

Here are the selection procedures from the prechampionships manual. I have no idea how these impact your list. It seems as if there's some contradiction to what is stated above in regards to numbers

Step 1: All individual swimmers and all relays that have achieved “A” time standards will be
entered in the meet.

Step 2: The top16 qualifying relay teams in each relay event and 24 spots
for divers will be reserved.

Step 3: Entries will be added to each individual swimming event, filling across rows until each
event has an equal number of qualifiers. One entry will then be added to each individual swimming
event in event order to keep the events at the same number. This process will be repeated as long
as each individual event in the entire order of events can receive an additonal entry and the total
number of individual event qualifers remains below the individual cap and the total number of
overall competitors remains below the overall cap.

Step 4: If at some point the addition of one competitor per event to the entire order of
individual events puts the field over the individual event
qualifier cap or the total number of competitors cap, the competitor whose percentage is closest to
the record will be taken first until 140 men and 146 women individual event qualifiers are selected
or the maximum participant number is reached.

Step 5: In the rare instance of a tie for the last entry to the championships, both individuals
will be allowed to participate in the championships.

Step 6: Relay-only swimmers will be added to
only those individual events for which they have met the “B” time standard.

Step 7: After the selection process is completed and the qualifiers are selected into the
championships, the optional entries will be added for the individual qualifiers.

Step 8: After divers have been selected, no team may have more than 18 competitors.

Number of Participants. The number of participants in the 2013 championships cannot exceed the
following limits: Men—260; and Women—267.
Dave Fritz
Grove City College Swimming and Diving

nescac
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Re: 2013 Cut Line

Post by nescac » Mon Feb 25, 2013 2:50 pm

I found one minor error in my list of women. Sarah Yu is not 14th in backstroke. Laura Harris (who already has too many swims) is 14th. That moves up Tinklenberg, who was already in the meet. I don't know why the line is so much higher this year for women (assuming I'm right). One hypothesis is that fewer women were able to qualify in multiple events as the qualifying standards have gotten substantially faster in the strokes. Relay times also got much faster so a lack of depth is certainly not the explanation. It will be odd if men make it to line 13 and women only make it to line 14, given the larger cap for women. If the cap were increased by 7 this year, top 16 women would qualify in each event. But, of course, it's not going to happen.

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N Dynamite
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Re: 2013 Cut Line

Post by N Dynamite » Tue Feb 26, 2013 8:57 am

How does this change the cut line for the women? Looks like the next 200 FR in would be Grove City with the same 4 that are already on the 400 and 800.
(in the MIAA forum) Negrodamus wrote:
openwater wrote:Kalamazoo women's 2FR is 14th.
That was a timing error. The last leg stopped at 17 sec. They were 3rd at conference with a 1:36.9 which was their best time this season
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Re: 2013 Cut Line

Post by nescac » Tue Feb 26, 2013 9:18 am

That's a huge error because that was Kalamazoo's only relay and all four swimmers were relay-only swimmers. I believe that gets the women through line 15 and includes one line 16 swimmer. Emory now does have a problem with its roster limit. It's also hard to predict which three events will be swum by some of the top swimmers. Getting to one person in line 16, though, is a huge improvement for the women!

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