2010-11 List of All Entries Received

What do you predict for nationals? Who is going to shine, who is not?

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swimmer_dad
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2010-11 List of All Entries Received

Post by swimmer_dad » Tue Mar 01, 2011 12:19 pm


screeeeeeeeech
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Re: 2010-11 List of All Entries Received

Post by screeeeeeeeech » Tue Mar 01, 2011 12:24 pm

Let the rampant speculation BEGIN!
Adjusting expectations: so close to 500 posts!

imJumbo
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Re: 2010-11 List of All Entries Received

Post by imJumbo » Tue Mar 01, 2011 1:43 pm

I'm confused. Is that the actual psych sheet? Or is that it with all of the Emory girls included as well? And before the real cuts come down?

nescac
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Re: 2010-11 List of All Entries Received

Post by nescac » Tue Mar 01, 2011 2:25 pm

Emory women have 23 swimmers on list who are in the top 19. So it's clearly an "uncut" list. But each swimmer only has 3 swims so that part of the cutting has taken place. There are no names for relays so it's not easy to run the NCAA algorithm. My best guess for women is that line 19 swimmers are fine and line 20 swimmers are fine when a "weak" Emory swimmer is ahead of them. Of course, all 20 100 backstrokers with an A cut will qualify. There are also some ties. For women, there is a tie at 19th position in 50 free and 20th position in 100 fly. And there is a tie at 18th position in 200 breast. I assume senior Marie Kim (Emory) doesn't make the squad in the 100 fly so that tie won't truly exist and the other ties are likely above the line. (I didn't even include Kim in my count of 23; she'd be 24 for Emory if she qualified for nationals.) So, for the women, there is still some uncertainty beyond the question of whether the overall cap is reached before the individual cap is reached.

swimjunkie
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Re: 2010-11 List of All Entries Received

Post by swimjunkie » Tue Mar 01, 2011 3:52 pm

What exactly is the rule in re: relay swimmers w/o "B" cuts? Am I remembering wrong, or do they not get to swim an individual event for each relay they qualified in?

openwater
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Re: 2010-11 List of All Entries Received

Post by openwater » Tue Mar 01, 2011 4:05 pm

If you get in on a relay and have no B-cuts, you do not get to swim any individual events.
Once a competitive swimmer, you can become anything.

openwater
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Re: 2010-11 List of All Entries Received

Post by openwater » Tue Mar 01, 2011 4:14 pm

And on the subject of relays; Kenyon, Amherst and Stevens Point have aggregate 4MR times while Emory, Kenyon, Hopkins and Amherst have aggregate 8FR times. Emory also has a new time for the 4FR so that is most likely also an aggregate. So other than these 8 (which the real numbers geeks amongst us can work out from the data), the other 72 relay compositions are listed on the USA swimming page - unless of course a team swaps out a swimmer for some reason.
Once a competitive swimmer, you can become anything.

Chapel Partner
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Re: 2010-11 List of All Entries Received

Post by Chapel Partner » Tue Mar 01, 2011 4:25 pm

So when is it official who made the meet?

nescac
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Re: 2010-11 List of All Entries Received

Post by nescac » Tue Mar 01, 2011 4:46 pm

I'd love to learn what someone concludes from running the NCAA algorithm. I could do it when the results were on the usaswimming data base but the new pdf-only version is too hard for me to cut and paste. My prediction is they hit line 19 when the overall cap kicks in, so they don't use all 146 individual spots. But, of course, we need to know who Emory is leaving home to make that calculation. I'm hoping they don't bring any relay-only swimmers because that will let other teams have more individual swims. I suspect their 200 free and 400 free relays could be awfully fast with the swimmers who have all those A cuts! I find it hard to believe they'd leave an A cut at home ... but anything is possible.

openwater
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Re: 2010-11 List of All Entries Received

Post by openwater » Tue Mar 01, 2011 4:58 pm

Chapel Partner wrote:So when is it official who made the meet?
March 8th by 5pm eastern time will be the real deal. March 3rd by 5pm is supposed to be a list of names of swimmers that will be invited and not specify events - that is what will be out on the 8th - including alternates and divers.
Once a competitive swimmer, you can become anything.

Truthinswmng
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Re: 2010-11 List of All Entries Received

Post by Truthinswmng » Tue Mar 01, 2011 10:42 pm

nescac wrote:I'd love to learn what someone concludes from running the NCAA algorithm. I could do it when the results were on the usaswimming data base but the new pdf-only version is too hard for me to cut and paste. My prediction is they hit line 19 when the overall cap kicks in, so they don't use all 146 individual spots. But, of course, we need to know who Emory is leaving home to make that calculation. I'm hoping they don't bring any relay-only swimmers because that will let other teams have more individual swims. I suspect their 200 free and 400 free relays could be awfully fast with the swimmers who have all those A cuts! I find it hard to believe they'd leave an A cut at home ... but anything is possible.
Has anyone figured out the crossover on the men's side between the total participant cap and the swimmer subcap (the only subcap really left)? I mean what looks like the last line in. With so many relays included, including several made up of sometimes at least 3 swimmers without any cuts, it would seem that the swimmer subcap may never be reached and as a result, the number of B cut, non-relay qualifiers may reach a historic (and absurd) low, Line 16 or 17?!! Guess that's what happens when the goal is to increase participation, without any concern about quality.

nescac
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Re: 2010-11 List of All Entries Received

Post by nescac » Wed Mar 02, 2011 8:37 am

I wouldn't describe the situation in quite as stark terms as you but, on the women's side, I do believe the new rule has not succeeded in improving quality. I'm sure I'm leaving out other NESCAC examples, but the new relay rule combined with a too-low cap (in my opinion) will make it unlikely that NCAA goes past line 19 for individual events. Yet, it is certainly possible that swimmers in the 20 - 25 range could taper well for nationals and score in top 16. In NESCAC, some swimmers who appear to be staying home because their teams couldn't mount good relays are Charlotte Green (51.88 in 100 free), Kara Leasure (2:21.60 in 200 breast) and Chelsea Heneghan (1:52.91, 5:04.12 and 17:27.30 -- a senior with a great season). Meanwhile, lots of Amherst swimmers are making the meet due to phenomenal swims by Kendra Stern and the 16-cap cut off. Alison Merz certainly belongs in the meet on her own legs (fabulous 100 fly/200 fly swims and the 20th spot in 200 fly) and she would be there on her own if NCAA had relaxed individual rules rather than relay rules. I have trouble understanding the logic in preferencing relay-only swimmers who barely get B cuts (or don't even get B cuts!) over the high quality swimmers in the 20-25 range. I guess you can respond that this is a "team sport" so relays should especially count but we all know that swimming is also an individual sport and that it must hard to be the Charlotte Green or Chelsea Heneghan of an otherwise fairly weak team. Of course, whatever NCAA does, it will be open for criticism. And I am happy to see more swimmers get the chance to attend nationals. And it is the case, for women, that the 16th relay spot is faster than last year's selection time so the emphasis on relays had a positive impact there, it would seem. But I really applaud the fast swimmer on an otherwise slow team and would like more of them to have an opportunity to shine at nationals. The relay rule achieves the opposite result by preferencing swimmers who are on teams with other strong swimmers.

babwik
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Re: 2010-11 List of All Entries Received

Post by babwik » Wed Mar 02, 2011 10:15 am

The meet is designed to determine the national champions (team and individual) and award all-americans. It is not as a reward for seniors who have a great season. Why does the 20th line swimmer "deserve" to be at the meet? The swimmers that deserve to be at the meet will be there, as they qualified under the current formula. The reason the cap was increased was because there were never the best 16 relays in any event at the meet. You could have the 10th or 11th best relay sitting at home while 3 distance kids and a 200 breastroker could throw together a 7:18 800FR for 15th place. (exagerration, but you get the point.)

This rule is going to make the honorable mention all-american relays much more legitimate, in a way that the 21st swimmer in an individual event would not. THE ONLY REASON the cap was increased was to improve the relays. It wasn't an option of more relays OR more individuals. I'm very grateful that this rule was passed, and appreciate the work the committee put into this. There are ALWAYS going to be people just on the wrong side of the line.

openwater
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Re: 2010-11 List of All Entries Received

Post by openwater » Wed Mar 02, 2011 10:19 am

Truthinswmng wrote:
nescac wrote:I'd love to learn what someone concludes from running the NCAA algorithm. I could do it when the results were on the usaswimming data base but the new pdf-only version is too hard for me to cut and paste. My prediction is they hit line 19 when the overall cap kicks in, so they don't use all 146 individual spots. But, of course, we need to know who Emory is leaving home to make that calculation. I'm hoping they don't bring any relay-only swimmers because that will let other teams have more individual swims. I suspect their 200 free and 400 free relays could be awfully fast with the swimmers who have all those A cuts! I find it hard to believe they'd leave an A cut at home ... but anything is possible.
Has anyone figured out the crossover on the men's side between the total participant cap and the swimmer subcap (the only subcap really left)? I mean what looks like the last line in. With so many relays included, including several made up of sometimes at least 3 swimmers without any cuts, it would seem that the swimmer subcap may never be reached and as a result, the number of B cut, non-relay qualifiers may reach a historic (and absurd) low, Line 16 or 17?!! Guess that's what happens when the goal is to increase participation, without any concern about quality.
Here is some bad news for the mens individual qualifiers: there are 102 swimmers among the 320 individuals listed in the top 16 for the 5 relays whose names do not appear in those entered in the top 20 of the 13 individual events. So the total men's cap of 257-22 divers = 235-102 relay only swimmers = 133 individual entries, no where near the 146 'cap'. So we are 13 over. If you drop row 20 completely it only removes 5 swimmers - the other 8 in row 20 are already in in a higher seed. Row 19 has 5 individuals who are in in higher seeds leaving 8 - exactly the number needed to get down to 257 total.

So I calculate that NO ONE in row 19 will make the meet. Disgusting outcome.
Once a competitive swimmer, you can become anything.

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N Dynamite
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Re: 2010-11 List of All Entries Received

Post by N Dynamite » Wed Mar 02, 2011 10:27 am

babwik wrote:The meet is designed to determine the national champions (team and individual) and award all-americans. It is not as a reward for seniors who have a great season. Why does the 20th line swimmer "deserve" to be at the meet? The swimmers that deserve to be at the meet will be there, as they qualified under the current formula. The reason the cap was increased was because there were never the best 16 relays in any event at the meet. You could have the 10th or 11th best relay sitting at home while 3 distance kids and a 200 breastroker could throw together a 7:18 800FR for 15th place. (exagerration, but you get the point.)

This rule is going to make the honorable mention all-american relays much more legitimate, in a way that the 21st swimmer in an individual event would not. THE ONLY REASON the cap was increased was to improve the relays. It wasn't an option of more relays OR more individuals. I'm very grateful that this rule was passed, and appreciate the work the committee put into this. There are ALWAYS going to be people just on the wrong side of the line.
+1
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