2018-19 Season

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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby wvswimfan88 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:01 pm

Good stuff, Dynamite. Glad to continue having more people active on the board again.

N Dynamite wrote:As for Holton, maybe he has a concussion or something. I'm going to assume he'll be fine for PACs and Westminster will still take top 3 on both boards. Since Sutter dove on Saturday I'm going to assume he was sick or hurt as well. I couldn't remember there being any guy divers at W&J so I checked their roster and there's no one named Gray on it, so I'd say he's gone.


Hadn't checked on W&J in a while - mainly because of how irrelevant they are right now- but you're right, Gray is gone. He had dove earlier in the year.


N Dynamite wrote: As for the women, Rast didn't do 3 meter either. She did it at PACs last year, though, so I'm not going to assume anything from her, Bottcher, or Tan other than Tan will probably be last. If I remember correctly Bethany stopped using their 3 meter board years ago and their recent diver only did a very simple list on 3 meter because she couldn't practice it. Maybe the current Bethany girl does the same thing, maybe she chose Bethany because she knew she wouldn't have to do 3 meter. And I have to disagree with you on the scoring - I felt it was the opposite - Diggins looked more consistent where the Westminster divers were all over the place, but the judges wouldn't give anything other than 5's and 6's. That kept the score much closer than I thought it should have been. I think the end result was correct last night. With that said, that just means I have no idea how PACs will finish as Westminster could (should) easily clean up their mistakes from last night.


Ok to disagree on scoring - heck, the judges do it all the time! You certainly are right about the lack of distinction in scoring, though. Dives that were on the cusp of failing still got 3s and 4s, and Tan and (to a lesser degree) Bottcher were getting scores that were far too close to the rest of the competitors for their quality. I had actually missed that Bottcher competed 3M against SVC (well, Clarion)... I knew that she hadn't competed it all year up to that point, and didn't pay too much attention to diving during that meet since it didn't help me learn much. When she didn't compete last night, I ASSuMEd... and we all know what that does. So my bad there, too.

N Dynamite wrote: I don't see Grove City's men losing. The championship scoring will help Westminster more because Grove City won't be able to pull away as quickly as a dual meet and I don't see the other teams making too much of an impact other than a couple SVC guys, but looking at the results from last night it looked like Grove City wasn't just taking the top spots, but winning a lot of 5-6 and 7-8 place races as well. On the women's side I still have to give the edge to Westminster. If they go with 6 divers, and I see no reason why they wouldn't, I don't see Grove City making up those points. In fact, I probably shouldn't use the word edge as it implies the meet will be closer than I believe it will be. I'll go as far as saying it's Westminster's to lose


I agree fully on the men's side - realistically, it shouldn't be that close. Not that Swimulator is gospel, but it currently has Grove City beating Westminster 895-761 for 17 swimmers. Assuming a 1-2-3 for Westminster in diving, that's a 106-84 advantage for the Titans there, but that still adds up to a 112-point Wolverine victory. On the women's side, Swimulator has Grove City up 814-729 for 17 swimmers. It's harder to factor the diving spread for Westminster, but we'll say it's 130 points (has a higher likelihood of being less than that than more). You then have to subtract 11 points for what Swimulator has Westminster's 17th swimmer earning, and that leaves us with a 34-point Westminster victory. I still think it's going to be an every-point-matters type of meet, but that also holds true if and only if the trend continues that Grove City tapers better than Westminster - statistically, this has been the case over the past several seasons. Even in that, I would still give Westminster the edge, but, if tapers are even, then you're right - we're probably looking at around a 30- to 35-point spread.
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby WCAlum17 » Sat Feb 02, 2019 12:56 pm

The Westminster men did get smacked as they dropped a PAC duel meet for the first time since 2013. That being said they had some strong swims from Kwalick and Peffer and obviously a dominant diving performance. I am confident that the missing diver will return for the PAC championship meet but I dont know how much of a difference that will make in terms of who wins.

The GCC boys swam exceptionally well. Hoselton is in the position to break 50 again this year at PACS (although last year it came on a relay). Ben slate looked studly against some of his top PAC competition. Most importantly for them the relays where they won the 200 medley by an astonishing 3 seconds and the 200 F.R by about 1.2 seconds. If they want to win PACS I think that winning relays is going to be key and I'm sure they hope that SVC will knock WC down a spot on top of that. Other honorable mention here is Dickhudt in the 200/100 fly events.

The backstroke talent this year reminds me of the Brooks Simon rivalry. Between stretsky, hoselton and peffer there could easily be 3 men below 50 in the 100 back. I will be interested to see if Peffer swims the 100 back this year where the competition is very tight at the top or if he will opt for a more sure place in the 200 or 500 free. Someone will have to remind me of the rule but I believe he can use a relay swim to try and qualify for nationals and if this is the case I think there is a possibility he swims the 200bk 200fr 500fr combo.

On the Womens side a rough break on the 50 free and some lackluster diving performances seemed to seal Westminster's duel meet fate. I know that at the 2017 championship meet Fast had to switch some dives to beat the GCC diver so I was not surprised when she lost in the duel meet. If WC wants to win the title at PAC's they will need Fast to be on her game and to take both titles or have Zoe Cable move into 1st place. 50 free touch outs are tougher to speculate on. Home pool advantage can definitely be a consideration (however this is the pool PACs is swum in so she better adjust if she wants the title). I still think that the WC women have a good chance of winning PAC's.

Dassow did will but I will be surprised if she posts best times this year. In general I think she has looked better in previous years.

Link to full results:
file:///C:/Users/AngeloSS/Downloads/013119atGCC.pdf
Swimulator Links: (no diving)
https://swimswam.com/swimulator/?type=c ... n&heats=16
https://swimswam.com/swimulator/?type=c ... n&heats=16
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby wvswimfan88 » Sun Feb 03, 2019 9:19 pm

WCAlum17 wrote:I will be interested to see if Peffer swims the 100 back this year where the competition is very tight at the top or if he will opt for a more sure place in the 200 or 500 free. Someone will have to remind me of the rule but I believe he can use a relay swim to try and qualify for nationals and if this is the case I think there is a possibility he swims the 200bk 200fr 500fr combo.


Yes, WCAlum - The leadoff of any relay counts as an official time of the respective event, so his leadoff leg of the 400 Medley would count as an official 100 back time, just as a leadoff of an 800 free relay would count as an official 200 free time for that swimmer. The 200 back is probably Peffer's only absolutely sure event, as he's the clear favorite there, and I would say that the 500 is a lock, too. Most likely comes down to 200 free vs. 100 back since they are on the same day with just the 100 breast separating them - in which one does Coach Smith think he will finish higher and in which one does he displace fewer Westminster swimmers (or help fewer GC swimmers). I do question Stresky's top time just a little bit - it was swam at Hiram in a SCM pool and was the leadoff leg of a 400 Medley Relay. He swam that relay leg in 56.62 SCM but later in the same meet swam the 100M back in just 1:03.20 and his other event time from that meet was good, but not exceptional.

WCAlum17 wrote:I still think that the WC women have a good chance of winning PAC's.


They definitely do, and they're the on-paper favorite. I think it will be VERY close, but it's there's to lose.

WCAlum17 wrote: Dassow did well but I will be surprised if she posts best times this year. In general I think she has looked better in previous years.


Definitely agree. Not sure the cause, but she's been slower all year. With DIII expanding the nationals field last year, I think she probably still has a good shot to get to nationals, as she can be several seconds off her best in the 200 Fly and still be ahead of the 2018 selected time.
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby wvswimfan88 » Sun Feb 03, 2019 10:31 pm

So, outside of the Westminster Diving Invite next weekend, all competition prior to the PAC Championships is now complete. My question for you all - outside of the women's team race, which I think we all agree should be (varying degrees of) close, what are the things you're most interested to see?

For me, it's these:
1) Who all has a shot to get to nationals this year?

Based on what we've seen this season so far, I'd say the only true locks are Connor May (unless he has a bad regionals) and Jacob Davis (already .32 under the selected time in the 100 from last year). I think Dassow and Brouwer are pretty likely to return. I don't think the Grove City women can overcome the loss of Crutcher to get their 200 Medley Relay back this year, but here are the others I think could have a chance:

GCC's men's 200 Medley Relay (Hoselton, Slate, Dickhudt/Wakefield order TBD)
Luke Mason (GCC) - 4IM
Mallory Marzolf (Chatham) - 2BA, 4IM, 100 (probably in that order of likelihood)
David Peffer (Wes) - 2BA
Dane Hoselton (GCC) - 1BA
Cheyne Stresky (BET) - 1BA, 2BA
Zach Baum (SVC) - 1FL
Ben Slate (GCC) - 2BR (I'd say this is more likely than the 1BR, but not out of question there)
Danielle Ledyard (GCC) - 1FL (a little more unlikely)
Patrick Holton (WES) - diving, if healthy... haven't seen him compete... by scores, seems clearly regionals capable but don't know if he's got a shot for nationals.

Yes, a lot of those are unlikely, but it is encouraging to be reminded that, while the depth of the PAC isn't great right now, the top-end talent is there.

2) Can Davis finally get to any of Caleb Courage's records?
For the past two seasons, Mitch Stahara seemed to be on the cusp of breaking 1:40 and getting to Caleb Courage's PAC 200 Free record of 1:39.66, but, unfortunately, he never could get there. I don't think any of the three are off the table for Davis this year, but I think the 50 (19.97) is less likely than the 100 (43.60) or 200.

3) Other PAC records in jeopardy?
Outside of Baurle's breaststroke records, I think any of the other men's individual PAC records could be challenged. Mentioned Courage's records, Brouwer (500/1650) and Baum (1FL) are back to challenge their own records, Dickhudt has been fast enough in his career to challenge the 2FL, Hoselton/Stresky (1BA), Peffer/Stresky (2BA), and Mason in the IMs. GCC's 2Med Relay would need to set a new record to make NCAAs. On the women's side, fewer are in jeopardy. Dassow hasn't seemed on enough to challenge her own records, but Mallory Marzolf could have a shot at both of the backstroke records. Again, a lot of these are a stretch, but, like before, cool to see some of these records even being on the radar.
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby wvswimfan88 » Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:22 pm

Appears that Grove City's Longnecker Pool is going to have some upgrades in time for PACs - less than a week away!

Screenshot (461).jpg
Screenshot (461).jpg (178.23 KiB) Viewed 491 times
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby WCAlum17 » Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:33 am

WVSwimfan:

GCC's men's 200 Medley Relay (Hoselton, Slate, Dickhudt/Wakefield order TBD) - Possible but that is a very tough qualifying time and its tough to say if there will be a team to really push them.
Luke Mason (GCC) - 4IM - Wow didnt realize he was that fast but he still has a ways to go to get to 3:58 invited time.
Mallory Marzolf (Chatham) - 2BA, 4IM, 100 (probably in that order of likelihood) - Not sure on this one
David Peffer (Wes) - 2BA - has a shot for sure. Didnt have a great taper last year but was under 1:50 his sophomore year. His best duel meet time in this event was faster than Brooks' his senior year (WC Pool record)
Dane Hoselton (GCC) - 1BA - Likely if the invited time stays consistent
Cheyne Stresky (BET) - 1BA, 2BA - I doubt it but its not impossible in the 1 bk
Zach Baum (SVC) - 1FL - Has a shot but I would be more confident if he had broken 50 at mid season. This is a fast event on the national level IMO
Ben Slate (GCC) - 2BR - I dont see this happening
Danielle Ledyard (GCC) - 1FL (a little more unlikely) - I agree doubtful
Patrick Holton (WES) - Has a shot.

I think the 100 is most likely for davis.

I only really know about the mens side of the PAC records so you'll have to exclude my ignorance on the women's side. I dont think the PAC open records that Steve Brooks set at nationals will be broken or even touched. 1:47 and 48.90 are just a bit low even for this solid group of backstrokers. I think all the record holders could possibly re break but I'm not sold on any of them for sure.
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby wvswimfan88 » Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:51 pm

Results from the Westminster diving invitational are up here: https://athletics.westminster.edu/docum ... pdf?id=631

On the men's side, Holton did indeed compete for Westminster, finishing just ahead of Thomas on one board and just behind on the other. Should mean a Westminster 1-2-3 on both boards, but if either of those two has a rough day and GCC's Ryan Morris is on, he could break up the top of the podium. As we've all said, no one will touch May.

The women's side continues to be muddy, as W&J's Pawcio was the top PAC finisher on 1-meter with Elia/Cable/Fast the order of the top three Westminster finishers... on 3-Meter, it went Cable/Fast/Pawcio. That's all to say that literally any order could happen from those top five or so (the aforementioned plus GCC's Diggins) and it wouldn't be a surprise, and those orders of finish could be fairly meaningful.
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby wvswimfan88 » Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:32 pm

We're officially underway!

Five dives down for the women on 3-Meter and for the men on 1-Meter:
Women's Standings (3M):
Kaitlyn Fast (WES) 181.50
Jamie Elia (WES) 173.30
Kaitlyn Pawcio (WJC) 169.75
Reilly Diggins (GCC) 164.30
Zoe Cable (WES) 160.30
Gayner Rossi (WES) 138.30
Maddie Rast (WES) 119.10
Miriam Tan (GCC) 113.50
Emma Bottcher (WES) 106.25

Men's Standings:
Connor May (WES) 191.65
Patrick Holton (WES) 182.50
Zack Thomas (WES) 178.10
Ryan Morris (GCC) 159.55
Jonah Sutter (GCC) 137.60
Garrett Dickhudt (GCC) 109.30

Men's results are unsurprising, perhaps other than that May's lead isn't larger. I didn't keep track, but his DD must be right with his teammates for now (if not a touch lower), but I suspect that will change once we get to the six optional dives.

On the women's side, the race between the top five is tight, as we expected. I suspect that Rast will be closer to Rossi in the battle for 6-7 by the time we get to the end of the set, but the battle for the final spot in finals is shaping up to be interesting. As the scores reflect, Tan has looked a bit better than Bottcher so far, but I'm not sure that either has competed an 11-dive competition on 3-Meter. We will have to see how those final six dives flesh out.
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby WCAlum17 » Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:04 am

WC is swimming pretty fast. 1 point lead on both sides. It will be very interesting to see how tomorrow goes.

Go Titans!
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby wvswimfan88 » Fri Feb 15, 2019 9:02 am

I agree, WCAlum. I would say that, based on who they have, Westminster has looked better on the whole so far than Grove City has. Crazy to be separated by a single point on both sides!
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby weedwacker2000 » Sat Feb 16, 2019 10:11 am

Well, I've been following at a distance this year, but I'm now ready at comment. First of all congrats to Davis and Baum for breaking pool and conference records on the second day! To me the Grove City men are in good position to capture their first championship since 2014. The depth of their #13 through #17 swimmers is much greater than Westminster's, as GCC is getting more swims in the championship finals. On the other hand the GCC women needed to be about 90-100 points ahead of Westminster after the second day if they have any hope of capturing their 11th in a row. I expect The WC women to pass them today and win the PAC championship.
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby wvswimfan88 » Sat Feb 16, 2019 5:53 pm

Glad to hear from you, weedwacker. Yes, absolutely - great stuff from those guys. Was a matter of time for someone to get to one of Caleb Courage's records, particularly the 200, so glad Davis could get to that - we'll see if he can challenge the 100 record here in a bit. As for Baum, good to see him keep improving. Likely still a little shy of nationals at this point unless he swims a last chance and can drop another couple tenths, but if he keeps trending in this direction, he'll have a good shot as a junior and senior. And what a 200 Back prelims today from Peffer! Knew he looked fast, but to see that he got not only a B-Cut but a Q18 and the meet record is incredible. Hopefully it stands up for selection.

Barring something crazy, you're right, Grove City should have no problem holding on - they have three more swims tonight than Westminster does, which should offset the diving deficit. In some ways, it's a bit of the reverse of the last few seasons - I think the margin will actually be closer than talent might dictate, as I think this is the best I've seen Westminster perform at championships in some time.

As for the women, I don't know that the margin needed to be quite that large, but certainly in the 70-80 point range. Last night when quickly scoring out the likely events and an estimation of diving for tonight, I had Westminster winning the night by about 75 points. I thought that it was a really bad sign for Grove City when they lost the opening relay right from the get-go, because, giving the massive diving deficit, they were going to need every other point they could get. If things go right tonight, they can still cut the final margin to 10-20, but would probably take a significant DQ (relay, diver, or A-finalist) to have any chance of winning.
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby wvswimfan88 » Sat Feb 16, 2019 9:43 pm

Will post far more later, but congratulations to a pair of PAC programs who ended long title streaks to win crowns - the Westminster women and Grove City men! On the whole, I think Westminster performed the best of all the teams at this meet, and I'll get to that more when I'm not as tired.
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby wvswimfan88 » Wed Feb 20, 2019 11:26 am

Well, had a few days to reflect on the meet and do some number crunching.

First, once again, congratulations to the Westminster women and Grove City men on snapping title droughts to earn the team victories.

Second, congrats to some individuals who had incredible performances: Jacob Davis (44.16 100, 1:39.60 200), Zach Baum (49.00 1FL), Anne Shirley Dassow (55.81 1FL, 2:02.77 2FL), David Peffer (1:48.25 2BA), Luke Mason (1:52.26 2IM) and divers Connor May and Patrick Holton. Davis finally broke one of Caleb Courage's records in the 200, and his 100 time should surely get him to nationals. Baum isn't nationals bound yet and Mason didn't even get the B-Cut, but taking down conference records is a big deal. No, Dassow wasn't as fast as she was the last two years, but that 200 Fly time will still get her to NCAAs. Peffer's 200 Back may have been the swim of the meet to me - I was expecting him to go under the B-cut and threaten the Q18 mark, but to break Steven Brooks' meet record (open record from '15 NCAAs is 1:47.78) and almost surely punch his ticket to nationals is huge. And finally the divers - May we knew would be stellar, but the fact that Holton nearly beat him on 3M, well, I was quite impressed. The difficult thing for those two is that they will be fighting each other at regionals, and there are a lot of great divers at that level competing for a limited number of spots.

Third, the meet played out pretty much to form from a points-spread perspective, which means I was wrong with some of my predictions - namely an even closer margin on the women's side and a larger margin on the men's side. Even as I was watching, I thought that Westminster was performing much better than they have relative to talent in recent years, and the data backs that up.

Team Taper % Drop
Saint Vincent Men 2.699
Chatham 2.595
Westminster Women 2.284
Saint Vincent Women 2.060
Grove City Women 2.039
Westminster Men 1.829
Grove City Men 1.715

That chart shows the average % of time dropped from each team's midseason "taper" meet to the PAC Championships. Now, this inherently has some flaws, as it can only compare common swims (i.e., Westminster's Nyna Hess swam the 200 IM at midseason but the 400 IM at PACs, so we can only use her common 1BA and 2BA swims), but it's still enough data points to give us a pretty good idea of how things went.

Using similar data from previous years, I had based my projections on the recent trend of Grove City tapering better than Westminster. As you can see, the opposite happened (and for the women, that excludes Regan Kelly, who didn't swim at Wooster Inv. at all and had some important swims at PACs).

On the whole, while there were a number of exciting swims and a handful of folks who certainly were contrary to this, I was a little disappointed at how slow the meet was overall. The winning time was slower compared to 2018 in 27 of 36 swimming events, and the time it took to get into the A final was slower in 19 of 26 individual swimming events. I ran one other set of data comparing common swims from the 2018 PAC Championships to the 2019 meet (people who swam the same event both years), and the overall difference was an improvement of only .05%. For reference, that's equivalent to someone who swam a 20:00 1650 only improving to a 19:59.40. I don't have prior year data on this yet, but it's not the most promising. Given that DIII swimming is getting significantly faster (at the top, at least), all of those factors are a bit discouraging. Hopefully that's something that will change into 2019-20.
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby WCAlum17 » Wed Feb 20, 2019 8:36 pm

Probably my final post until the recruiting scene starts making some noise but here we go:

I was worried about the WC men as a whole coming in to this meet. Even though they did not come out on top of the meet they exceeded my expectations and I am proud to call myself WCAlum lol. I think that the team traded some duel meet swims for a better championship performance. The men had not lost a PAC duel meet for several years until the end of this season and I think they were just getting beat up at practice until pretty late in the season which lead to a better taper but worse duel meets. While there is opportunity to be dominant in both if you have a bunch of studs (2015) it is difficult.

The WC women are showing serious promise in the younger classes and I think they could pull it off again next year if they recruit well. Very excited to watch them perform in the coming years.

I was impressed by JD, ZB, and DP on the swimming side I think if your going to congratulate Luke Mason you should give Kwalick a shout out since I think he broke the record as well at 1:53.00 but maybe I'm mistaken there both had great swims and I just want to give Matt props.

The meet is slower than it was when I was there. Nice to see I would place higher this year in my event than I ever did in school but also sad. I think they should bring back the AMCC if they can. Either way find some way to fill all the finals heats. It's also not as loud/exciting without them there.

Anyways, its been fun chatting on here all season. Talk to you all soon.
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