2018-19 Season

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2018-19 Season

Postby wvswimfan88 » Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:22 pm

Well, we're just over two weeks from the start of the 2018-19 season, so I figured that now was as good a time as any to kick off the thread for the year on here!

We're coming off a year of extremes for the conference in 2017-18, a year that saw some of the best top-end swimming in quite a few years with a national champ, two more national A-finalists/First Team All-Americans, an HM All-American, and a national qualifying relay but at the same time saw the saddest level of depth that the conference has seen in many years as well. A few rosters are already posted for the 2018-19 season, so we have our earliest ideas of whether that could change for this year.

(For reference from the rest of the post, I want to explain language I'll use for team previews. If I refer to someone as Top-3/contending for a title, that means their best HS/club times surpassed the 3rd-place finals time in a given event in the 2018 PAC Championships. If I refer to them as a potential A-finalist, their times are better than the 8th-place time from prelims at PACs. B-finalists are the less clear ones - I tried to use a standard of time for this that excluded the true outliers (swimmers who very clearly only qualified for finals because of lack of depth). So, it's a floating rank based on wherever the biggest dropoff seemed to be. Certainly not scientific, but hard to make assessments given the situation.)

*Bethany men/women - Has "2018-19" rosters listed, but so far they are simply last year's rosters with seniors removed (class years of the athletes aren't even updated). We will update more on Bethany once more info is available. In terms of graduation, the Bison men lost no one while the women lost Alaina Geer, who scored 14 of the team's 21 individual event points at PACs in '18, and Mackenzie Bosley.

*Chatham women - The first thing to note is that Chatham, led by new coach Rebecca Yost, has apparently decided to shut down men's swimming and diving...for now. The website shows that they plan to give launching a men's program another go in 2019-20 - hopefully they can keep a consistent coach long enough to see it through. As for the women, who graduated no one from last year's squad (and seemingly returned all 11 swimmers), former coach Crosby and Coach Yost brought in five freshmen, three of whom (Artalee Braglee, Charity Fannie, Molly Hunter) appear capable of reaching B-Finals already.

*Grove City men - No roster yet. The Wolverine men only lost one swimmer who was a factor in Brett Gwynn (42 indiv. points, three relays) but lost all three of their scoring divers from last year in Archibald, McClure, and Tobias (80 total points). While those three certainly weren't on the level of Westminster's divers, with last year's lack of depth in PAC diving, they scored enough points to keep it a close meet. Grove City certainly can't replace close to 80 points with an 18th-best swimmer, so hopefully (for their sake) they brought in a few divers to help replace those points, especially given what Westminster brought in there (more on that later). Jonah Sutter was the only other Wolverine diver to compete at PACs last year as an exhibition competitor, but he competed only on 1-meter.

*Grove City women - No roster yet. The Wolverine women graduated five scoring seniors and one diver who earned a significant 221 total individual points - a large void to fill heading into the year. Certainly the most significant loss is Megan Crutcher, who won several conference titles and swam the breaststroke leg of GCC's successful medley relays. Her presence on the relays shouldn't be to severe from a conference standpoint, as GCC has other strong enough swimmers there, but her 57 individual points, combined with lots of points from Robison, Bartlett, Noll, Darnell, and Shoemaker, will be a lot to make up from returners not on last year's conference roster and newcomers.

*Saint Vincent men - No roster yet. The Bearcats return some heavy hitters in Baum, Davis, and the Martin brothers, but did graduate three of their top-seven scorers in Alex Bolen (45 points, 4 relays), Adam Gordish (36 points, two relays), and Kam Faychak (35 points, one relay) and lost two other scorers in Sean Doyle (16) and Marshall Grubb (5).

*Saint Vincent women - SVC women didn't lose as much to graduation as the men did, but the graduation of Kelly Kramer (53 points, 4 relays), one of the conference's most versatile swimmers, is a big one. Added to the graduations of Gianna Boburka, Casi Smith, and Gabby Bobak, the Bearcat women lose 115 indiv. points in total from the Class of '18.

*W&J men - Roster is online. This one is encouraging for the conference and for the Presidents. W&J only had six competitors at PACs last year, and three of those - Jared Rebman (11 pts), Owen Hanna (9 pts, five relays), and Matt Noel (1 pt, 5 relays), graduated. Worth noting is that Theo Skoric, a multiple-time conference champion diver and the team's top scorer from last year with 35 points, is NOT listed on the team roster. However, new coach Matt Rochna does have nine freshmen, most of whom appear to be able to make major contributions right away. Don't know anything about their one diver, Dominic Gray, and could only find water polo info on Jason Wright. Nick Belofsky, Robby Koch, and Dustin Reinke are all B-final swimmers already while sprint freestyler Jack Cusick and breast/IM swimmer Andrew Ivory both would have reached A-finals in three events. I don't think Colin Higinbotham will challenge Jacob Davis, but his best time is already top-3 in the 50, and Dean Kralic should challenge for the league crown in the 100 Fly while scoring in a few other events.

*W&J women - Roster is online. The news isn't quite as encouraging for the W&J women, who graduated their top two swimmers in Alexis Glenn (47 points, All-PAC, 4 relays) and Madison Babicka (25 pts, 4 relays) as well as Hayley Georgetti (2 pts, 1 relay). Additionally, four other swimmers who competed at PACs in '18 are not listed on their roster in Alex Daum, Jillian McElhaney, Tara O'Toole, and Kaylyn Novitski, who combined for 48 individual points and six relay slots). Kaitlyn Pawcio, the runner-up in both diving events, is back, as are Kiera Macwhinnie (10 pts, 4 relays), Tori Metz (6 pts), and Kaitlyn Ewing (1 pt, 1 relay), but that's it. Callie Wiebel will score points as a diver and Kimber Randolph should score in the sprint freestyle and both backstroke events while Emma Rearson could be an A-Finalist in the 500, but, as for now, it looks like it's getting worse before it gets better for the Lady Presidents.

*Westminster men - Roster is online. After several years of minimal volume losses to graduation, the Titans finally took a hit this year, graduating seven seniors who combined for 222 individual points and five relay swims. Mitch Stahara is clearly the biggest lost (49 points, 4 relays, multiple conference titles in previous years), but Kolesar, DiDomenico, and Bogen all surpassed the 30-point mark last year while Barrett and Morosetti both scored 28 and 27, respectively. Eric Shannon, who wasn't on last year's conference roster but would have scored in all three of his events, appears to have not returned, but the Titans do still have a lot of firepower to go with a 13-member freshman class. Trevor McCabe seems to be the best of the newcomers, as he already has top-3 times in both the 50 Free and 100 Breast, while Jacob Musselman, Tyler Liston, and Nicholas Pirollo all are potential A-finalists in the sprint freestyle events. Charles Gordon, Constantine Kallaur, Kevin MacMurdo, Zayne Trebour, and Cameron Wood all also appear capable of scoring points. The Titans also added three more divers to their wealth of riches in that area; given that Grove City's Sutter and Yaich (if they return) and W&J's Gray are the only other three divers known in the conference , I could see the Titans using two roster slots for divers, as they could earn as much as 160 points in that way.

*Westminster Women - Roster online. Coming off their first third-place finish in some time, the Titans graduated five seniors, led by top point-scorer and former conference MVP Megan Douds (48 points, 2 relays), for a total of 130 individual points. Alyssa Hampton (20 points, 2 relays) didn't graduate but isn't on the current roster, marking another loss. The Titans DO return two swimmers from their 2016-17 team who didn't compete at PACs in 18 in Courtney Kinkead and Caitlyn Peace, both of whom were exhibition swimmers who would have scored. Add that to a 13-member freshman class, and the Titans should be continue to challenge for the top of the league. No apparent immediate title contenders in that crop, but Marissa Bowers (100 Free, 1Back, 2Back), Anna Grimenstein (1650, 2Fly, 2IM), Regan Kelly (50-200 Free, 1Back), and Megan Routch (100-200 Free) all come in with multiple A-Final times. Juliana Diehl, Carinna Lapson, Kelly Somora, and Ryann Stewart all should be capable of scoring, too. The Titans also bring in 4 divers to add to their three returners. Like the men, I expect the Titans to use two of their 18 roster spots for six divers - a worthwhile strategy as long as the conference remains to thin in that area.

So, as of now, if Bethany were to have the same roster size as is currently listed and SVC fills both rosters (based on # of potential returners, I'm pretty confident GCC will do so), it looks like the men's side of the conference meet will still be about 10 swims short of full this coming year and the women's will be 14 over. Hopefully Bethany was able to bring in a few on each side... and W&J doesn't lose anyone.
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby PACswimmingnerd » Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:01 pm

Great analysis!

I couldn't agree more with what you have already laid out.

Can't wait for season to start! Looking like a promising season.

Excited for the top end of the pool - hopefully more trips to NCAAs come march for all returning qualifiers. Hopefully some new additions on that trip as well!

The conference seems to have deepened a bit, hopefully a trend that can continue in the future with the re-instation of the Chatham men's program in 2019-2020 and upward momentum with W&J. Honestly, I wish Thomas More were still in the PAC because they recently started a program, and nabbed the former Cincinnati coach at the helm. Given their prowess in all other PAC sports in the past, it seems like they want to build a good swim team as well. Unfortunate that they left at this time!

All in all, (WAY too early predictions here) it's looking to be another shootout this year on BOTH sides! WC and GCC - all other teams trying to throw a wrench in someone's points.

On to the previews (why can't all rosters be updated this early? :x ):

*Bethany still seems to have abysmal conference impact, but as you said, it doesn't seem like their rosters are *actually* updated unless they really didn't bring in any freshmen. Hope that isn't the case! Really hope they can get more people in the upcoming years. Seems like they have not been able to use Stresky to tout their coaching abilities, and with him being a senior, their time with that has run out.

*Chatham women seem to be still solid with a couple more additions, hopefully they will all stay on board with the coaching change. I hope that Rebecca Yost will stay the coach there for a while and help with consistency - also hopefully coach similarly to the level Crosby was at. He seemed to develop his swimmers well in the short time they were together. Sad to see no men given the depth of the conference last year, but I understand it must be difficult to start a men's program from scratch when there's already been an established women's university for so long. It's a great school in the heart of Pittsburgh, hopefully they can recruit some talent in the future.

*Grove City women graduated a hell of a lot, like you said - 221 points. That is huge and as you stated, going to be hard to overcome. Anxious to see who they get when their roster is up! Hopefully the monumental success of Dassow last season boosted their recruiting.

*Grove City men are losing most points in the form of all three scoring divers - reiterating the point you brought up - this is monumental given what WC added. They may be able to get three divers and get them good enough for both boards to at least get points in those events. Until they release their roster it will be hard to tell if they can begin to make up those lost points. They also lost Brett Gwynn (42 ind. points), but he was honestly replaceable (due to many strong underclassmen) in all of his relay spots and GCC would have still had the same outcome as last year. All in all, they lose returning 122 points. Hopefully building on their momentum from last year and the monumental success of Brouwer, they are looking hungry for their first conference title in five years. Some returners (especially Rhys Dickudt and Ben Slate) will be looking for redemption after lackluster individual performances last season. Excited to see what they may have brought in - their hopes of a title literally depend on it.

*Saint Vincent men again return their heavy hitters, but lost a lot with senior Alex Bolen (45 ind. points and huge splits on PAC champion 200/400 Free relays as well as a 20.37 split in the 200 Medley), but
that may not hinder their ability to contend for PAC titles in the Free Relays due to Zach Baum (3 titles and 20.65 and 46.42 lead off legs) and All-American Jacob Davis (3 titles and absolutely ridiculous 19.83/44.05 splits) carrying the team. John Martin will hopefully improve his splits - leaving them to fill in the gap with someone who can hopefully help them contend. Their 400 medley relay takes a hit with the loss of backstroker Adam Gordish, because they cannot replace him without moving around their studs on those relays. Their women lose a lot, graduating a loss of 115 points. That will be hard to overcome. We won't see the entirety of their freshmen class, but they posted (maybe?) all of them on their Instagram account already, and some time digging reveal no real standouts, but adds depth do both teams. They don't seem to have many freshmen in numbers, but again that will be revealed in time.

*W&J tabbed a young and energetic head coach with Matt Rochna. A standout swimmer at St. Bonaventure, he was a team captain, 200 Fly school record holder, and helped the Bonnies win back-to-back A-10 titles in 2013 and 2014. Additionally served as a grad assistant for IUP and was briefly the assistant coach at MAC Women-only Ohio University - also is an elite age group club coach. Hopefully all of that rich coaching experience adds up to what could be the start of a newly envigorated and competitive W&J team. Their women are definitely not as strong as the men this year - not bringing in as much speed and definitely losing a lot, seemingly to quitting. The men bring in multiple A-Finalist times and *may* look to challenge the other schools in relay power. Dean Kralic is a top-notch butterflyer (50.2 flat start and 22.42 50 Fly split) with some solid free times (22.3/47.8 flats) and Andrew Ivory is a top-notch sub-minute breaststroker. Excited to see what they do!

*Westminster men graduated 222 points (100 more than GCC), but were able to reload with a whopping 13 freshman. Heath Calhoun added even more top end talent and depth to their diving squad, and they should score some serious points with five very good divers in February. They lost some top end relay speed with the graduation of Mitch Stahara (20.05/multiple sub-45 splits/consistent 1:40's), and if their relays don't scale, GCC could possibly match them in all of the Freestyle relays. Overall, their senior class was obviously deep with Kolesar, Stahara, Dan Bogen, Didomenico, Sheets, Morosetti and Barrett, but they also bring in a lot of depth/capable point scorers, and are looking to develop them to secure a fifth consecutive title this season.

*Westminster Women have brought in a deep and talented freshmen class as well as the two aforementioned returners from 2016-17 season to reload and honestly be itle contenders with the huge loss from GCC to graduation. Like you said, Marissa Bowers, Anna Grimenstein , Regan Kelly, and Megan Routch all have multiple A-Final times and Juliana Diehl, Carinna Lapson, Kelly Somora, and Ryann Stewart all seem to be capable of scoring too. Not to mention their diving corps is also six-deep, hopefully going to rake in some much needed points. Very exciting time for the WC women! Hopefully they can contend with GCC for a PAC title this year! They are definitely hungry after not seeing a title in over a decade.

Going to be a great season of college swimming, can't wait to see it all unfold!
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby WCAlum17 » Thu Nov 01, 2018 9:35 am

Well First week in the books with some interesting results and a potentially telling week 2 ahead of us.

I'm interested to see how the WC men do against Allegheny this weekend. Could be a good indicator as GCC defeated Allegheny in a relatively close meet last weekend. Allegheny did manage a win over WC two years ago with that stud sprinter they had getting a few critical touch outs. I think that this year Allegheny may well out swim the Titans however the diving will fall heavily on the side of Westminster and ultimately save them the meet.

On the Womens side this could turn into a very interesting season as the GCC women (long reigning PAC champions) dropped their first dual meet of the year to Allegheny in Blowout fashion only winning the 1000 and the 200 fly. Of course Allegheny has a strong women's team this year but I did not see that many astonishing times warranting this kind of blowout. I'm not sure the WC women can win this meet but will a stronger showing than that provide a glimpse at PACs?

Nothing much to report on St. V as they swam Bethany and both M&W won swimming off events.

GCCvsALL Results: https://athletics.gcc.edu/documents/201 ... groall.htm
WCvsPSB Results: https://athletics.westminster.edu/docum ... pdf?id=562
SVC vs BETH Results: https://static.athletics.stvincent.edu/ ... 202018.htm

Let me know what you guys think!

I'd like to try and get this forum going so if anyone reads this lets send links out to the people we know who may be interested!
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby Elroy Jetson » Fri Nov 02, 2018 6:40 pm

WCAlum17 wrote:Well First week in the books with some interesting results and a potentially telling week 2 ahead of us.

I'm interested to see how the WC men do against Allegheny this weekend. Could be a good indicator as GCC defeated Allegheny in a relatively close meet last weekend. Allegheny did manage a win over WC two years ago with that stud sprinter they had getting a few critical touch outs. I think that this year Allegheny may well out swim the Titans however the diving will fall heavily on the side of Westminster and ultimately save them the meet.

On the Womens side this could turn into a very interesting season as the GCC women (long reigning PAC champions) dropped their first dual meet of the year to Allegheny in Blowout fashion only winning the 1000 and the 200 fly. Of course Allegheny has a strong women's team this year but I did not see that many astonishing times warranting this kind of blowout. I'm not sure the WC women can win this meet but will a stronger showing than that provide a glimpse at PACs?

Nothing much to report on St. V as they swam Bethany and both M&W won swimming off events.


I'm more interested in next weekend when Grove City swims St Vincent. St Vincent will be a week out of their midseason meet so they'll probably be pretty fast, plus they usually get up for Grove City and Westminster.

I don't think Allegheny's a very good measuring stick for either gender - their men aren't very deep and it looked like Grove City was messing around a little (Hoselton didn't swim any backstroke, Brouwer didn't swim at all, they 1-2'd the medley relay and almost tied it - then still easily won the free relay). Westminster could (should) beat them by a lot and I don't think I'd be able to read into anything. I'm also expecting Allegheny's women to win easily - where their men aren't deep their women are. Even if Allegheny's women do win easily or the men's meet ends up being close I don't think it means anything - Westminster never seems to swim very fast early in the season. Both teams have so many freshmen I don't feel comfortable making any predictions until after the midseason meets when we see how they're responding.
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby WCAlum17 » Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:24 pm

Seems like GCC managed to beat SVC on the girls side which I did not think would happen honestly.

WC dispatched WJ last night without much issue and seemingly swimming off events. WJ always takes a while to start swimming fast though because of the water polo season overlap. I will say that the men's dominant diving performance at Allegheny was key in that victory but if you eliminate the diving scores altogether they still would have won I think.

I would agree that it is unwise to read into anything before the mid season meets come around but I expected more out of SVC on both sides although the SVC women won 9 events even without diving GCC would have won by 2 points. It will be interesting to see how the mid-season meet goes for SVC this weekend.

If GCC women can win PAC's this year then I don't see them losing in the near future.
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby Elroy Jetson » Sun Nov 25, 2018 10:51 am

WCAlum17 wrote:Seems like GCC managed to beat SVC on the girls side which I did not think would happen honestly.

I didn't think so either, but I guess I thought SVC would be better. Maybe I haven't been paying attention enough and SVC graduated more than I thought

WCAlum17 wrote:WC dispatched WJ last night without much issue and seemingly swimming off events. WJ always takes a while to start swimming fast though because of the water polo season overlap.

Not to take anything away from WC - they swam off events and did fine, but W&J is just so thin. Hopefully the new coach will be able to rebuild that program and make them competitive but it's going to take a while. I just don't understand what happened the last couple years there - did Orstein just stop caring? Their women are especially bad.

WCAlum17 wrote:It will be interesting to see how the mid-season meet goes for SVC this weekend.

I was a little underwhelmed by the SVC results. Maybe because they did so well at PACs last year. I especially expected more out of Baum.

WCAlum17 wrote:If GCC women can win PAC's this year then I don't see them losing in the near future.

I'm not following your logic here. It seems to me that WC has a better (or at least bigger, which I'm translating to more potential) freshman class. I haven't seen much from the GCC women this year and they're really only one class strong. In that regard, that class doesn't seem to be getting any better. Does Dassow have a hangover from last year? I can see them losing this year, and if they don't bring in a strong group next year it could be a while before they win again
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby wvswimfan88 » Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:56 pm

After looking through the midseason results, the best description of how I feel is perplexed...and perhaps disappointed. You never really know how coaches are approaching the various midseason meets, but, on the whole, midseason times from PAC swimmers (Jacob Davis aside, perhaps) were pretty underwhelming.

Elroy Jetson wrote:I didn't think so either, but I guess I thought SVC would be better. Maybe I haven't been paying attention enough and SVC graduated more than I thought


I thought that SVC would be better, too...unfortunately, they are getting VERY little out of their freshman class on either side (outside of Lauren Krecota). The entire class has a total of 12 times ranked in the top-20 of any individual event right now, with Krecota accounting for six of those. The only other swimmer with a top-10 time is Josh Ligus' 9th-place mark in the 1650...and at 18:36, it's not exactly anything to write home about. The women should have enough to hold of Chatham for third, but the men will be well back of GCC/WC.

Elroy Jetson wrote:Not to take anything away from WC - they swam off events and did fine, but W&J is just so thin. Hopefully the new coach will be able to rebuild that program and make them competitive but it's going to take a while. I just don't understand what happened the last couple years there - did Orstein just stop caring? Their women are especially bad.


Yes, it appears that Orstein indeed stopped caring. I can't help but think that the timing of his retirement might not have been 100% voluntary. As good as W&J is on the whole athletically, W&J's program is in a pretty rough state. As you said, women especially bad...but it was just a few years ago, too, that the men had eclipsed GCC for second. Gonna take some time for Rocha to right the ship, but the men seem to at least have one building block in Colin Higginbotham.

Elroy Jetson wrote:I'm not following your logic here. It seems to me that WC has a better (or at least bigger, which I'm translating to more potential) freshman class. I haven't seen much from the GCC women this year and they're really only one class strong. In that regard, that class doesn't seem to be getting any better. Does Dassow have a hangover from last year? I can see them losing this year, and if they don't bring in a strong group next year it could be a while before they win again


So, Elroy, I'll use your comments to spur a lot of my other thoughts regarding midseason meets. I'll start with the women, since that's where that last quote leads.

Based on Saint Vincent's overall lack of a freshman class outside Krecota, we're once again looking at a two-team race on both sides between Westminster and Grove City. The GCC women indeed looked very MEH at their midseason meet, particuarly Dassow at the top. She's had at least one B-cut at midseason each of the last two years and I think last year some of her midseason times would have been selected had she not bested them later (thought, that's a bit misleading, since with the additions to the women's national meet in 2018, you didn't have to be much below the B-cut to actually be selected...), but she wasn't even particularly close to a cut this time. Was she sick? Did Fritz rest GCC less than normal for Calvin? Tougher academic semester? Could be any combination of those or many other things. The thing is, Westminster wasn't all that impressive at Wooster either. Abbie Jones had a good showing, and freshmen Bowers, Routch, and Grimenstein were all solid, but nothing was WOW. Even with Dassow well off her game, Westminster's relays were all slower (yes, Grove City will have to swim a different lineup on one relay at PACs, most likely the 400 free, but if you really look at times there for both teams, GCC should still be faster).

I think that the women's meet at PACs is very much going to be like the men's meet last year. Swimulator currently has the Wolverines with a 98 point lead over the Titans if 18 SWIMMERS are scored, BUT, much like the Westminster men last year, the Westminster women have an enormous lead over Grove City in diving and are far weaker at the bottom of their lineup where it matters most. Grove City likely only gains about 15 points by replacing their 18th swimmer with their two divers; Westminster should gain upward of 140 points from swapping out their 17 and 18 for their five divers. That there gives Westminster a 27-point lead. The caveat is this: historical data shows that Grove City typically drops the most time from midseason to PACs out of all the schools that swim a midseason meet. I scored the meet out on my own trying to take into account the typical differences in taper, and I had Westminster winning by 11. Can the Grove City women improve enough to offset that difference? Their men nearly did so last year, so it's very possible - I could see us having a single-digit margin again this year, just on the women's side.

To respond to Elroy and WCAlum regarding Grove City's "streak," I see both sides. Elroy, certainly your right that the current trending direction greatly favors Westminster, and if Grove City doesn't get at least a class on par with Westminster's for next year, it will be in trouble. If you look at Grove City's recent recruiting history, for whatever reason, they've rarely had a strong freshman class for both men and women at the same time. Now, that's not to say that next year's class couldn't be me stronger on the men's side once again, but the women do seem due, so to speak. If WCAlum is coming from the perspective that this could be Westminster's window, he may be right, as Grove City loses VERY little from this year's senior class - I'm projecting just two from their scoring roster and both on the lower end.

As for the men's race, it looks like Grove City has finally tipped the balance in their favor. Westminster finally lost a key senior class last year, and the newcomers were ok at midseason but perhaps a touch underwhelming...and certainly not enough to fill the void. Meanwhile, Grove City's lost just a few pieces, added what's seeming to be a very strong freshman class (led by Luke Mason), including enough divers to keep Westminster from totally running away from things there. Brouwer was the only swimmer other than SVC's Davis to record a B-cut at midseason, but Grove City's depth is far superior to Westminster's. The Swimulator has Grove City winning by 126 excluding diving (for 17 swimmers)...but by my projections, factoring in tapers, even though Westminster has around a 50-point diving cushion (only about 35 when you remove their 17th swimmer), I see Grove City making up more than those 50 points to beat Westminster by somewhere between 125-150.
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby WCAlum17 » Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:35 am

https://swimswam.com/swimulator/?type=c ... n&heats=16

https://swimswam.com/swimulator/?type=c ... n&heats=16

Men's link first Women's second. I have to agree with wvswimfan on the overall results. I really think that the WC women have a window this year to sneak in a victory. It is completely possible that they build one victory into a little streak of their own but I think the women's side will remain competitive for a few years to come unless Fritz retires from GCC. You just don't produce a national champion and then drop off that quickly IMO.

As far as diving goes on the men's side I have WC scoring 51 and 52 points in 3m and 1m respectively and GCC scoring 39 in both. WC gives up 14 leaving off the 18th man and GCC gives up 23. This give a total points swing of 33 points from diving which still gives GCC a 90+ point advantage. I am excited to get to see WC swim as an underdog. While I was swimming there we only faced one year as an underdog and it was the most fun I ever had at PAC's even though we did not end up winning.

On the women's side I think the diving swing could make the difference for WC and give them the crown for the first time in I don't know how long. It will be even more interesting if SVC shows up to play and has a big meet. I think they have enough pieces they just have yet to put it together.
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby Elroy Jetson » Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:16 pm

I'm interested to see WC and GCC get back into racing, although with the projected weather this weekend it looks like we'll have to wait until next weekend to see either of them in action. I've always thought Westminster looked a lot better in the spring than they did in the fall - not sure if this is true and if it is why it is, but I'm curious to see if it appears that way this year too.
WCAlum17 wrote:As far as diving goes on the men's side I have WC scoring 51 and 52 points in 3m and 1m respectively and GCC scoring 39 in both.

Can you explain how you got different totals for WC? For one, I'm assuming WC puts in at least 3 male divers, maybe 4 (I can't remember seeing results for their 5th one). Second, since they haven't faced each other yet and WC has done so well in diving recently I'm assuming no GC diver beats a WC diver. Third, I don't think anyone else has a diver. For 3 divers I have WC with 53 points on each board (20+17+16, possibly 68 if they go with 4) and GC with 42 (15+14+13, if WC uses 3) or 39 (14+13+12, if WC uses 4). I think 4 is the better call for WC, but that's still probably only about a 50 point advantage and I think GC can make up that easily at this point, although I think wvswimfan's projection is a little generous.

WCAlum17 wrote:On the women's side I think the diving swing could make the difference for WC and give them the crown for the first time in I don't know how long. It will be even more interesting if SVC shows up to play and has a big meet. I think they have enough pieces they just have yet to put it together.

I agree with your assessment on WC's diving - 6 divers is a LOT of points. I have a harder time estimating the women's point totals because W&J, Bethany, and GC all seem to have at least one solid diver. I have a feeling there will be a big crowd for diving on Saturday night.

As for SVC, I've been even more underwhelmed by their recent meet than I was before the break. On the other hand, Chatham seems to be doing well and I think they have a legit shot at 3rd. Their last meet had entry times that I'm guessing were from their midseason meet and they dropped time from those.
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby wvswimfan88 » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:33 pm

I'm interested to see that, too, Elroy, but you're right - no meets for either of them this weekend, it appears. Was hoping that they would perhaps bump up to Friday night like Chatham-SVC did, and I was waiting to respond until results for that meet were published.

I feel fairly confident that Westminster will go four divers on the men's side and five/six on the women's side (as of now, Bottscher has only competed on 1M and Rast only has a 6-dive score on 3M) - it just doesn't make sense not to do so from a points perspective. With that, I indeed had WC over GCC 68-39 on each of the men's diving events.

Elroy Jetson wrote:I think 4 is the better call for WC, but that's still probably only about a 50 point advantage and I think GC can make up that easily at this point, although I think wvswimfan's projection is a little generous.


You well may be right, Elroy. My rationale there is that over the last few years, Grove City has consistently dropped more time from midseason to PACs than Westminster. Can't guarantee that that trend will continue, certainly, but I do think that Grove City's margin is comfortable enough that, barring multiple relay DQs, they should take the title without much worry.

Elroy Jetson wrote: I agree with your assessment on WC's diving - 6 divers is a LOT of points. I have a harder time estimating the women's point totals because W&J, Bethany, and GC all seem to have at least one solid diver. I have a feeling there will be a big crowd for diving on Saturday night.


As you said, women's is a little tougher to project at this point - especially since Westminster didn't dive their full compliment of women at W&J. I think Kaitlyn Fast is probably still the women's favorite, but behind her I think it's a battle between Bethany's Laci Growe, Grove City's Reilly Diggins, and W&J's Kaitlyn Pawcio for second on 1M (and maybe Westy's Jamieson Elia or Zoe Cable), but 3M is an entirely different story. I'm sure GCC's Diggins will get an 11-dive list together on 3M but don't know how good she will be compared to Cable and Elia. I'm doubtful about Tan getting an 11-dive list together for GCC, and you never know if a Bethany diver is going to be able to throw together an 11-dive 3-meter list. In my projections, I had Westminster amassing a massive 162 points in the two diving events to just 38 for Grove City - that made assumptions that WC's sixth diver Bottscher would get a 3M list together for Westminster and that Tan would not for Grove City, and certainly that all could flex as many of my projected finishes were guesses within a spot or two.

Elroy Jetson wrote: As for SVC, I've been even more underwhelmed by their recent meet than I was before the break. On the other hand, Chatham seems to be doing well and I think they have a legit shot at 3rd. Their last meet had entry times that I'm guessing were from their midseason meet and they dropped time from those.


Tonight's meet between these two teams was the reason I held off writing this post until now. I will say, Elroy, that the seed times for Chatham in that first meet of 2019 were not times from their midseason meet...or at the very least, very few of them, and there were swimmers with no seed listed who should've had one. I'm not even sure that Chatham knocking off the Bearcats in the dual meet is evidence that they will beat them at PACs. Chatham won 7 individual events to SVC's 5, and, as we all know, those individual wins hold so much weight in a dual meet. That's not to say it won't be close between them I had Saint Vincent with about a 50-60 point cushion in my projections, but SVC's depth in the sprint freestyle will be much more impactful at PACs that in a dual.

It's harder to project how Chatham will perform at PACs compared to the big three; with mostly consistent coaching for those other programs, we have some historical data to estimate how they have typically tapered. With Chatham under their third coach during the time of their current seniors and their first season under Coach Yost, it's hard to say how the Cougars will taper. Historically, they've dropped much less time by percentage from their midseason meet (.86% last year vs. 1.6% for SVC, 1.4% for Westminster, 1.8% for Grove City) than all the others who swim a midseason; if they can change that trend, they can close that gap and really challenge SVC for third.

The thing that I was actually most interested to see was if SVC's Zach Baum was competing, as he didn't in their opening meet of 2019. He did, which is good for the Bearcats and for the conference.
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby wvswimfan88 » Sat Jan 26, 2019 8:29 pm

Well, all PAC teams have now competed in 2019, though I'm not sure how much today's results from Westminster-St.Vincent and Grove City-W&J really tell us.

Starting with Grove City-W&J...

Hard to really gain much info, as Grove City swam a lot of off events, split all their relays to compete against each other, and exhibitioned any swim that didn't win. Dassow still seems exceptionally slow, even for the time of year - her 200 free time was 10 seconds slower than at a comparable time of year last year, and her other times weren't great either. From the diving side of things, Grove City's Diggins did beat W&J's Pawcio in both events, but they were both close enough scores that one rough dive at PACs could easily swing things in the other direction. Perhaps the biggest thing of note is that GCC's men's 200 Medley Relay broke the pool record set by the 2009 Wolverines by more than 2 seconds, and that team was pretty good (but admittedly, Caleb Courage didn't swim on that relay that day - Coppelli/Keefer/Larsen/Tim Whitbeck). Wakefield's 200 Fly time was better than Baum or Dunlany from the other meet.

Westminster unsurprisingly handled Saint Vincent on both the men's and women's side... Bartrug breaking 2 minutes in the 200 is solid for this time of year, and Peffer put up very strong times in both backstroke events (53.06/1:55.5). D'Aurora's 200 Fly time was pretty good, too. Ciara Lewis is a good swimmer, but wouldn't have expected her to beet Novak in both the 50 and 100. Not much to say beyond that. Surprised that Cable beat fast in 1M diving and was right with her on 3M, but perhaps fast was trying some new dives that didn't go so well (or maybe the gap between her and Cable isn't as great as I'd thought).

Anyway, Grove City and Westminster swim each other on Thursday night, so we should FINALLY get a better idea of how the two stack up against one another.
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby WCAlum17 » Mon Jan 28, 2019 9:00 am

As far as where I got the mens diving difference between 1 and 3 meter I'm pretty sure there was a junior W&J diver in the mix last year.

Excited for GCC WC meet this week. Hoping the weather holds.

As far as the WC SVC meet goes I was not surprised by the results. There were swimmers on each side that I expected to be quicker but that is typical of this season. Peffer's backstroke times were encouraging but also make me worry that he is ahead of schedule. If I recall correctly a lot of WC swimmers seemed to miss their tapers last year so I hope he stays strong until PACs.

Stay warm everyone!
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby wvswimfan88 » Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:12 am

Well, Grove City just posted about tonight's meet with Westminster on social media, so it appears that the PAC's marquee regular-season matchup is still on for tonight. For anyone wanting to follow along...

Live Video: https://livestream.com/accounts/13431056/events/8544999
Live Results: http://www2.gcc.edu/sports/livescore/swim/index.htm
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby wvswimfan88 » Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:18 pm

Alright, well the meet we've all been waiting for finally happened, and, to me, things on the big scale turned out roughly how I expected - a big sizeable margin of victory for the Grove City men and a very close meet on the women's side with Grove City narrowly coming out on top 152-148. Lots of takeaways here, and I'll try to keep it as concise as possible.

Hard to compare for Grove City as directly, with them swimming so many off events against W&J, but, with a few exceptions, Westminster was consistently faster tonight than they were on Saturday against Saint Vincent. Grove City most certainly was much faster, too; there just weren't as many easy comparisons over the small gap of time.

Starting with men's diving, some things got clearer, others even more muddy. Connor May gave the millionth example that he won't be touched - if you were allowed to fail more than one dive and not DQ, he could probably fail three or four and still win points-wise. Just noticed that Austin Shaw is no longer on Westminster's roster, and Patrick Holton hasn't competed since the team's trip to California. I had those two projected second and third in both diving events at PACs; we know they're losing one isn't the end of the world, as they can replace with a swimmer, but if Holton is out, too, that just leaves May and Thomas. Thomas and GCC's Morris split second and third tonight, but I think that Thomas is the better diver. Grove City's Sutter didn't compete tonight but he did on both boards at W&J on Saturday; he and Dickhudt should follow the aforementioned in some order with W&J's Gray bringing up the rear if he's still around.

On the women's side, I might be more confused. Yes, Diggins won both boards, but IMO she was consistently overscored by a bit. Kaitlyn Fast, who I thought was the favorite, had some bad misses tonight and also was a bit underscored, and I thought that Zoe Cable was the best of the night. Diggins did also beat Pawcio from W&J twice on Saturday, so perhaps her consistency will win out. Elia also factored in (though she had a dive on 3M that was almost identical in look to Fast's (a 104C) where Elia outscored Fast by nearly 14 points. Throw in the girl from Bethany and any one of six women could finish in any of the top six spots. What we did learn - Bottscher didn't compete 3M tonight, which should surely count her out from PACs on that board, and while Miriam Tan does have six dives together on 3M, they were shaky and I'm not sure that she could come up with another five without a likelyhood of DQing.

As for the women's swimming, there were quite a number of close races. Grove City bookended the meet with key relay wins. Westminster was dominant in the breaststroke and Marissa Bowers looked really good in the backstroke events. Dassow, while not as fast as she was at Westminster last year, looked much better than she has, especially in the 200 Fly.

The Grove City men were pretty dominant, not just winning most events but showing off their depth with a number of 1-2, 1-2-3, and 1-3 finishes. Ben Slate looked much more like he did his freshman year than a year ago to win the breaststroke events, Brouwer was his usual fast self in the distance events, and Hoselton was very fast in the 100 back, to highlight what were many strong swims. Peffer had one of the highlights of the night for Westminster with an impressive 1:54.1 in the 200 back, and the Titans really did put up a number of good times for them on the whole, but it's hard to draw too much good when Peffer's win was the only one.

So what does this tell us big picture for PACs? Not much that we didn't already know. If anything, Westminster's margin on the women's side might be even slimmer than before with Bottscher for sure off 3M (at least nine points there, probably) and the deficit for the Westminster men might be even bigger to overcome without possibly two strong divers (and one for sure).
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Re: 2018-19 Season

Postby N Dynamite » Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:27 am

I'm going to start off by saying that Grove City's men were much faster than I expected. Most notably, Hoselton's 50 and 100 back were really impressive. I also expected Westminster's men to be faster, but this is a weird time of year anyway, and we have no idea of knowing how the weather impacted the teams the past couple days. As far as the women, going into this I didn't expect Grove City to win and am somewhat surprised they did. Just looking at results from common opponents it felt like it might be close but that Westminster should win. Regardless, PACs is going to be very interesting.

wvswimfan88 wrote:Starting with men's diving, some things got clearer, others even more muddy. Connor May gave the millionth example that he won't be touched - if you were allowed to fail more than one dive and not DQ, he could probably fail three or four and still win points-wise. Just noticed that Austin Shaw is no longer on Westminster's roster, and Patrick Holton hasn't competed since the team's trip to California. I had those two projected second and third in both diving events at PACs; we know they're losing one isn't the end of the world, as they can replace with a swimmer, but if Holton is out, too, that just leaves May and Thomas. Thomas and GCC's Morris split second and third tonight, but I think that Thomas is the better diver. Grove City's Sutter didn't compete tonight but he did on both boards at W&J on Saturday; he and Dickhudt should follow the aforementioned in some order with W&J's Gray bringing up the rear if he's still around.

I don't think it needs to be said, but I'll be captain obvious too. Connor May is really good. I'm excited to see what he does at NCAAs. As for Holton, maybe he has a concussion or something. I'm going to assume he'll be fine for PACs and Westminster will still take top 3 on both boards. Since Sutter dove on Saturday I'm going to assume he was sick or hurt as well. I couldn't remember there being any guy divers at W&J so I checked their roster and there's no one named Gray on it, so I'd say he's gone.
wvswimfan88 wrote:On the women's side, I might be more confused. Yes, Diggins won both boards, but IMO she was consistently overscored by a bit. Kaitlyn Fast, who I thought was the favorite, had some bad misses tonight and also was a bit underscored, and I thought that Zoe Cable was the best of the night. Diggins did also beat Pawcio from W&J twice on Saturday, so perhaps her consistency will win out. Elia also factored in (though she had a dive on 3M that was almost identical in look to Fast's (a 104C) where Elia outscored Fast by nearly 14 points. Throw in the girl from Bethany and any one of six women could finish in any of the top six spots. What we did learn - Bottscher didn't compete 3M tonight, which should surely count her out from PACs on that board, and while Miriam Tan does have six dives together on 3M, they were shaky and I'm not sure that she could come up with another five without a likelyhood of DQing.

As for the women, Rast didn't do 3 meter either. She did it at PACs last year, though, so I'm not going to assume anything from her, Bottcher, or Tan other than Tan will probably be last. If I remember correctly Bethany stopped using their 3 meter board years ago and their recent diver only did a very simple list on 3 meter because she couldn't practice it. Maybe the current Bethany girl does the same thing, maybe she chose Bethany because she knew she wouldn't have to do 3 meter. And I have to disagree with you on the scoring - I felt it was the opposite - Diggins looked more consistent where the Westminster divers were all over the place, but the judges wouldn't give anything other than 5's and 6's. That kept the score much closer than I thought it should have been. I think the end result was correct last night. With that said, that just means I have no idea how PACs will finish as Westminster could (should) easily clean up their mistakes from last night.
wvswimfan88 wrote:So what does this tell us big picture for PACs? Not much that we didn't already know. If anything, Westminster's margin on the women's side might be even slimmer than before with Bottscher for sure off 3M (at least nine points there, probably) and the deficit for the Westminster men might be even bigger to overcome without possibly two strong divers (and one for sure).

I don't see Grove City's men losing. The championship scoring will help Westminster more because Grove City won't be able to pull away as quickly as a dual meet and I don't see the other teams making too much of an impact other than a couple SVC guys, but looking at the results from last night it looked like Grove City wasn't just taking the top spots, but winning a lot of 5-6 and 7-8 place races as well. On the women's side I still have to give the edge to Westminster. If they go with 6 divers, and I see no reason why they wouldn't, I don't see Grove City making up those points. In fact, I probably shouldn't use the word edge as it implies the meet will be closer than I believe it will be. I'll go as far as saying it's Westminster's to lose
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