MIAC Preview (Bringin it Back)

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MIAC Preview (Bringin it Back)

Postby mcphee » Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:57 pm

We're only a few weeks out! I'm gettin jittery just thinking about it, and I know y'all might be too...

Carleton's dual meet win over Bennies/Johnnies this past weekend has me starting to think about conference...I don't think the Carleton men have a high-scoring conference squad (yet), but there's always room for surprise.

I think St Thomas will take it on both sides, but with a few swimmers gone abroad & the Gusties' legendary taper...who knows?

Women:
1) Tommies, 2) Gusties, 3) Carleton, 4) Bennies, 5) Olaf, 6) Cate's, 7) Mac, 8) Augsburg, 9) Hamline, 10) is Concordia still in the MIAC tho??

( 11 did I forget a team oh shit I'm gonna feel bad)


Men:
1) Tommies, 2) Gusties, 3) Johnnies, 4) Hamline, 5) Carleton, 6) Olaf, 7) Mac, 8) Mary's


The real question is: which school can deliver the strongest coaches' relay? My money's on Augsburg, what with Alex "Solo Animal" "12,000 IM" Mathson technically being on staff, but I suppose that depends on what, exactly, the relay is. 800 Medley? 100 Freestyle? All underwaters?
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Re: MIAC Preview (Bringin it Back)

Postby swimblogger » Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:52 pm

I’m back ladies and gents, and ready to talk MIAC Championships. Let’s get it right out in the open… we all know the Tommies are going to dominate again. I am an old assistant coach for a MIAC team so I have little affiliation with this conference, but I’ve always loved watching the team rivalry in this conference. I posted a few times last year about my predictions and I will do that again as we get closer to the meet. After following results throughout this season it looks to be another year of the Tommie Takeover. That may mean team wise, but definitely not individually. There are many returners that are showing a lot of potential (Alexandra Howard, Caroline Mather, Bailey Biwer, Tanner Sonnek) but there are quite a few freshmen that have declared a spot on the podium this year (Kasey Ericson, Collin Nill, Sophia Nevin, Nate Stone). I will agree with mcphee that i’m getting jittery just thinking about the meet. I did notice that the Gusties didn’t have as much depth in their team this year, but that will hopefully change when they hit their taper. I’m expecting to see Gustavus really shine at this meet. I am excited to see what each team brings to the table as the days count down to the big day. What will set one team above another? will it be the taper? new freshmen? new coaches? or will it be the passion each individual has for their team? We are just 3 weeks away from seeing this all happen live.

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Re: MIAC Preview (Bringin it Back)

Postby Team Analysis » Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:56 am

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Re: MIAC Preview (Bringin it Back)

Postby Schiller » Sun Jan 28, 2018 5:08 pm

First I need to gloat about Carleton's win over Olaf. BTIN!

mcphee, those women's picks are ok (incorrect imo, but defensible), but oh boy are those men's picks crazy. Olaf at 6? Hamline at 4? In my opinion, the middle places appear very close and are hard to predict at this time, but there are some things that appear clear.

My men's order is 1.Thomas 2.GAC, then in some order 3-4-5 Olaf, Johns, Carleton Then 6.Hamline, Then 7-8 MAC, Mary's

First as a baseline, here's the current swimulator projection. Basically scoring out the top times so far this season without diving. I also included in the table below how each team was ranked at this point last year and how thier score changed at the real meet.

Image

Let's go through the teams

1. Thomas
This is pretty obvious. Thomas is better than everyone else. Boring. Next
2. GAC
GAC is the clear number 2 team in the pool and they should score a million points in diving. They will win some events, and have pretty good depth. Just not as many or as much as Thomas.
3-4-5. In some order: Olaf, Carleton John's
Here's where things start to get interesting. Olaf leads Carleton by 4 in the current swimulator projection and John's sits about 70 points back. Carleton and Olaf dropped 47 vs projection last year, whereas John's picked up 33. John's point gain last year was mostly down to their missing an 800 free relay time in the midseason projection. The rest of their team scored very close to their projected score. They are again missing an 800 free relay in this year's projection, so again spotting them about 30 points the real decicit is around 40 points right now. Assuming similar point swings to last year, these teams all project to about the same score in the pool.

Then we have to consider diving. Olaf and John's each have a diver (technically Olaf has 2, but the second might not make MIAC qualifying marks (at least based on the Carleton-Olaf dual results; maybe he already has one, I don't follow diving that closely)). Carleton is without a diver.

If you forced me top pick a favorite of the three, I'd take Olaf. They have several proven big point commodities in Loepfe, Eyman Case, and Reynolds, and their star freshman, Nill, seems like a safe bet for at least 40 points(and on the high end the mid 50s).

Carleton and John's are both relying on guys with the potential to score big points, but also the potential to drop places. Both teams are led by freshmen (Chang, Dockendorf). It's always dicey predicting big points out of freshmen unless they've done some no doubt times already (ex. Nill: 4:38, 16:12). Are they big taper swimmers? big in season guys? I have no idea.

Speaking of Dockendorf, anybody know what's up with that guy? He hasn't swum in John's last two meets. The recap of their meet this weekend said: "Freshman Mitchell Dockendorf (St. Stephen, Minn./Sartell-St. Stephen), who owns five top-10 times in the MIAC this season, did not compete Saturday." Wrap up articles don't usually mention guys who quit, or are in disciplinary trouble. Injury? Tuba concert? Feeding his goldfish?

And yes, Carleton just beat Olaf in a dual meet, but Carleton had a huge depth advantage. There were a bunch of events where Olaf only entered one or two guys and Carleton cleaned house. At conference this advantage disappears. Those lower end guys will likely score few to no points for Carleton.

If forced to pick for 4th place, I'd pick John's by a nose. There are arguments for both Carleton and John's. Carleton has more guy's with a chance to sneak into an A final. Their ceiling if they have a really good meet is higher than John's. John's has more depth (15 swimmers score in the current projection to Carleton's 12), a diver, and a slight edge in relays.

Ultimately any order of these 3 teams in 3rd, 4th, and 5th wouldn't surprise me. Should make for an exciting meet.

6. Hamline
Despite my picking them 6th, there is hope of catching the teams ahead of them. They have some fast dudes, and their current projected score is missing are relay. The problem is when you go through the current projection, it's hard to find obvious spots where theyare going to pick up tons of points. Horman is already projected to 48 points. Hobar is 6th and 5th in the breaststrokes. Many of their returning guys are projected close their point totals from last year. If Dockendorf is out for John's, that would be a huge help to them moving up.
7. MAC
See Mary's
8. Mary's
Finally there are some legit dudes on Mary's. However, I'm still putting Mac ahead because I think Rades is a worse version of Reischmann, Durbin is about equal to McCormick, MAC has a diver, and MAC's relays look a little stronger so far. This should be a close race between these two. One relay DQ or or bad swim from a key swimmmer could flip this.

Women
Current swimulator rankings (this weekend isn't in the database yet)
Image

My picks as of now: 1.Thomas 2.GAC 3.Olaf 4.Carleton 5.Kate's 6.Ben's 7.MAC 8.Hamline 9.Concordia 10.Mary's 11.Augsburg


Brief run through of the teams.
1. Thomas
Howard, Herrli, Strauss, Nelson. Their 17th swimmer projects to score 17 points. Need I continue?
2. GAC
7 swimmers projected over 20 points. 16 to score. They aren't catching Thomas, but their 2nd place is secure.
3. Olaf
Their position here is more about questions I have about Carleton than anything else. Like the men they don't have a ton of depth, but should be abole to pull down a ton of points in the long events.
4. Carleton
Mather and Meyer should be fine, but I'm not sure what to think about a bunch of their other swimmers. For example, Frase-Mines projects to 39 points based on her times from the Thomas Invite. Currently she ranks 5th in the conference in the 200 back with a 2:13.8. At the dual meet yesterday, she was 4th with a 2:23.0. Maybe she's just a really big taper swimmer, but that's a big gap in results. There are lots of similar examples across the board. Mayer (not Meyer) 2:25.9 200 breast mid season, yesterday 2:38.7. Lederer 200 back mid season 2:11.6, 2:17.6. To be clear, there is nothing wrong with going fast mid season. Or slow in season. However for the purposes of projecting who's going to score how much at the end of the year it's relevent to note 3 things 1)The Carleton women were much slower than their seed times yesterday 2) The Olaf women were close to their seed times yesterday 3) The swimulator projection, which is based on those seed times has these teams 12 points apart. It seems a reasonable bet that the Olaf women have more room to drop time vs their current seed times and are therefore favored over Carleton for 3rd.
5. Kate's
Yes, points machine Jenna Nagy is gone, but Hernandez-Nietling currently fills that hole with 38 projected points and, as a swimmer, can help on relays. Ellingson leaving is a blow, but Voss and Rising are still here. They are well ahead of where they were last year at this point. This is only Zook's 2nd year, so perhaps they did something differently this year. If so, there is some potential for overseeding here, but they moved up last year. For now I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and pick them 5th.
6. Ben's
Ben's is in a very similar position as they were last year entering the meet. Sitting on just under 200 points. Lots of swimmers with the ability to make B finals. Young is well ahead of last year, but their problem is simply how much better Kate's has been. If Kate's swims as well as they're seeded, I'm not sure if Ben's has the firepower to catch them. If Kate's slides, this is wide open.
7. MAC
No Georgscu this year. Lund and Thompson both project to over 20 points right now, but MAC saw some pretty big point drops from their January rankings last year, dropping 50 swimming points. I expect them to drop a few spots again this year. (To reitterate, this isn't acutally a bad thing, it's just a reflection of training cycles)
8. Hamline
Martinek puts them here over the bottom 3. They are missing an 800 FR in the current projection. Concordia has all 5
9. Concordia
Warren is pretty good. Just not as good as Martinek
10. Mary's
Hauser has put up some pretty fast times this year. They also have some divers. I think they are at enough of a disadvantage in relays that they're behind Concordia and Hamline, but big diving points could make up the gap.
11. Augsburg
They're not very fast. Which is a problem in this type of competition.

Those are my expectations for now. I'm sure some of my assumptions are totally misguided, but this post is too long for too thorough a fact check.
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Re: MIAC Preview (Bringin it Back)

Postby Finchinator » Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:06 pm

Psych sheets are out. Keep in mind swimmers are entered in up to 5 events but they will have to scratch down to 3.
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Re: MIAC Preview (Bringin it Back)

Postby swimpal » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:20 am

Anyone know why Collin Nill isn't entered?
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Re: MIAC Preview (Bringin it Back)

Postby Schiller » Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:28 pm

swimpal wrote:Anyone know why Collin Nill isn't entered?

Or Reischmann. Really hurts the quality in the mile. Throw out everything I said about Olaf bieng favored for 3rd. No Nill. No 3rd place

I dropped people out of everything except their top 3 rated events and scored it out. No diving as that's unranked on the psych sheet. Came to:
Men
Thomas 912
Gustavus 607
Carleton 408
Johns 251
Olaf 308
Hamline 305
Marys 137
Macalester 114

Women
Thomas 793
Gustavus 454
Carleton 392
Olaf 325
St Kates 265
St Bens 152
Macalester 117
Hamline 95
Concordia 74
Augsburg 54
St Marys 53

Then to get a sense of how things will change, I modified each teams times by a random percentage based on their tapers last year, re scored and re ranked. Repeat 5000 times. This gave the following distributions of orders (again no diving):
Men
Image
Women
Image

This is more bullish on the Carleton women beating GAC that I was. If Carleton women are over seeded then GAC should be fine. If I'm underestimating them, then we should be in for a fun meet.

This has Carleton/John's at pretty close to a coin flip, but John's divers give them a stronger advantage than this would indicate. That doesn't mean Carleton, can't or won't be 3rd, they're just not favored.

I don't think there's been a close Olaf/Hamline conference meet since the late 80's/early 90's. Should be interesting. Olaf's diver could be decisive.
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Re: MIAC Preview (Bringin it Back)

Postby Team Analysis » Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:13 pm

Are men's events happening before women's? Has that happened before?
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Re: MIAC Preview (Bringin it Back)

Postby Schiller » Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:33 pm

Team Analysis wrote:Are men's events happening before women's? Has that happened before?

New rule this year that event order alternates each year.
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Re: MIAC Preview (Bringin it Back)

Postby Dmitri I. Mendeleev » Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:49 pm

mcphee wrote: The real question is: which school can deliver the strongest coaches' relay? My money's on Augsburg, what with Alex "Solo Animal" "12,000 IM" Mathson technically being on staff, but I suppose that depends on what, exactly, the relay is. 800 Medley? 100 Freestyle? All underwaters?


HAHAHA, this would be awesome!!

In all seriousness, though: despite being the last team in the MIAC, I think that Augsburg has the strong shot out of any for a "W" in a coaches relay.

Head Coach Nora Stauber swam Division II for Mankato and was a pretty fast sprint freestyler for them. Asst Coach Luke Paquin was a decent swimmer for Gustavus. And, as you mentioned, Alex Mathson. I'm pretty sure they'd wipe the floor clean against any other coach team from the MIAC.

Andy Clark, Brooke Plotz and Gunnar Teigen could probably put forth a pretty decent relay for Carleton.
JC , Alex LIndstrom, and Luke Weyandt wouldn't be terrible for Gustavus...though it is hard to believe that someone that's built like a tank (Luke) could even swim...but he was pretty fast when he was at GAC.
With Lagieski, UST could have a decent relay, too, though they would need at least a third.

Either way, Augsburg's collective age (is it even 75?!?) would suggest being the clear favorite here.

I'd actually really like to see this happen.
Next year: MIAC Event 41: Coaches Relay
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Re: MIAC Preview (Bringin it Back)

Postby Schiller » Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:28 pm

Dmitri I. Mendeleev wrote:
mcphee wrote: The real question is: which school can deliver the strongest coaches' relay? My money's on Augsburg, what with Alex "Solo Animal" "12,000 IM" Mathson technically being on staff, but I suppose that depends on what, exactly, the relay is. 800 Medley? 100 Freestyle? All underwaters?


HAHAHA, this would be awesome!!

In all seriousness, though: despite being the last team in the MIAC, I think that Augsburg has the strong shot out of any for a "W" in a coaches relay.

Head Coach Nora Stauber swam Division II for Mankato and was a pretty fast sprint freestyler for them. Asst Coach Luke Paquin was a decent swimmer for Gustavus. And, as you mentioned, Alex Mathson. I'm pretty sure they'd wipe the floor clean against any other coach team from the MIAC.

Andy Clark, Brooke Plotz and Gunnar Teigen could probably put forth a pretty decent relay for Carleton.
JC , Alex LIndstrom, and Luke Weyandt wouldn't be terrible for Gustavus...though it is hard to believe that someone that's built like a tank (Luke) could even swim...but he was pretty fast when he was at GAC.
With Lagieski, UST could have a decent relay, too, though they would need at least a third.

Either way, Augsburg's collective age (is it even 75?!?) would suggest being the clear favorite here.

I'd actually really like to see this happen.
Next year: MIAC Event 41: Coaches Relay


I think you're sleeping on Macalester. Their head coach is an ex D3 national champ and they have Allie Clark and Wilson Josephson.
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Re: MIAC Preview (Bringin it Back)

Postby Nashland » Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:58 am

Olaf would destroy. Bob Hauck, Nathan France, and Joey Clapp? Literally just need a decent flyer and that crew in their prime wins MIACs this year.

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Re: MIAC Preview (Bringin it Back)

Postby mcphee » Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:20 am

This brings up a good point -- are we looking at these coaches in their prime? Or are we looking at a swim-off tomorrow?

To be honest, I bet Hauck can still throw down a decent swim (not Nats-level, but...gotta give credit where credit's due). Teigen (from Carleton) swam masters nats over the summer, did pretty well for himself (though it was long course, which is basically a different sport).

I like that Mac relay. Their women posted 3:45 at conference...could the coaches pull that off? I guess it depends on their diving coach...
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