New Head Coaches

Moderator: Schiller

New Head Coaches

Postby mcphee » Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:17 pm

At least three new head coaches coming to the conference this year--Mac, Johnnies, Augsburg.

Who is best set up for success? How do we tell?

(mostly I'm just asking Schiller for a strong metric--is it time dropped? point totals at conference? recruiting strength? or something totally different?)

(somebody show me the spreadsheets!)
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Re: New Head Coaches

Postby Schiller » Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:15 pm

Returning points is usually a good pre season baseline until we get more information on recruiting classes. Gustavus returns the most conference points for the men, but that may be a bit deceptive. Thomas lost 8 seniors. Gustavus lost only 1. That leaves a lot of room on Thomas's conference roster to slot in freshmen/scoring capable people already on their team (which they have plenty of).
The Carleton/Olaf meet was super close last year and both teams lost 0 senior points so that will swing heavily on freshmen this year. A return to form from Pelutis and Nill could also help Olaf (they're the current favorite for 3rd in my mind because of those two).

Men
Image
Women
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Knowing nothing about recruiting classes I view the teams going into the season in the following tiers. It will take an unusually strong recruiting class for teams to jump up to the next tier. I won't be too surprised by teams within the same tier finishing in any order:
Men
1. Thomas/GAC
2. Olaf/Carleton
3. Johns
4. Hamline
5. Mac/Marys

Women
1. Thomas
2. GAC
3. Olaf
4. Carleton/Kate's/Ben's
5. Mac/Hamline
6. Concordia/Mary's/Augsburg
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Re: New Head Coaches

Postby gustie2015 » Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:41 pm

Now with most team's starting meets and rosters up, how do the teams line up? Do early season predictions change base on incoming freshmen classes?
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Re: New Head Coaches

Postby mcphee » Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:19 pm

I think SCU might have a national program in their freshmen class?

Macy Klein -- 23.7 50 Free
Maggie Menso -- 16:39 1650 . 4:34 400 IM
Jordyn Wentzel -- 1:02 100 BR
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Re: New Head Coaches

Postby Schiller » Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:09 am

Holy macaroni that's a good class. Two junior nationals swimmers, plus an ace sprinter.

One word of caution: The last J-Nats recruit I can remember them getting, Alissa Ellingson, ended up as a pretty good, but never awesome swimmer for them. She also left the team after her sophomore year, Zook's first year as coach.

But wow, St Kates is super fun now. It's plausible they win half the events at conference with those three on board (not the most likely outcome, but it's plausible). Hernandez-Nietling and Rising are still around. 108 freshman points last year (more than Thomas).

What happens next with a class like that? Building into a big time program is the best case scenario. Worst case is they squander the momentum like Macalester did after they pulled in a bunch of national level recruits the year they built their new pool.

Currently, it seems like Zook is a heck of a recruiter.
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